Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense are starting to find themselves – not fully, mind you, but enough to no longer be a major concern. Meanwhile, the defense has been playing lights out. Plenty of folks are enamored with Josh Allen, but he’s immensely turnover prone in the red zone, and sorry, I’m not going to believe he can win a big game until he actually goes out and does it. Mahomes wins 70% and covers 80% of the time as an underdog, and he’s terrific in close games. Frustrating that this never bounced back to +3 for the Chiefs, but they are nevertheless the play in this road spot. I’d definitely buy the half point up to -120 odds, if possible, before kickoff.

The Bills finally get Patrick Mahomes in Buffalo. Are they really gonna blow that chance? Maybe I'm betting with my heart and not head because I'm tired of seeing the Chiefs in the AFC title game -- and frankly Taylor Swift-ed out -- but also feel relatively comfortable fading anything that Matt Nagy has to do with. Do you think it's a coincidence that KC offense has taken a major step back this season? Sounds like Buffalo is getting good injury news in the secondary regarding Taron Johnson and Rasul Douglas.

Josh Allen’s home completions in his last 5: 21, 15, 7, 20 and 15. And the 21 was on 70% completion percentage. Limbo lower

Josh Allen will make sure the ball is in his hands. And near the goal line he will be quite schooled not to make mistakes. When in doubt RUN! TD

KC knows playoff football. And they have kicked 10 FGs in Mahomes last 2 starts. No way they stay that inefficient in the red zone (which they pound). Over

Simply put, I am forced to back Mahomes as an underdog. When playing as the dog, Mahomes is 8-1-1 ATS & 7-3 SU. When playing as the dog or a favorite of less than 3 points, Mahomes is 20-8-1 ATS. The public is currently backing the Bills, with the majority of money on the handle coming in on the Buffalo side. When the money is against Mahomes and he is not the "public side", he is 13-7 ATS. The Chiefs feel like they are finally coming into form, and they've leaned on this elite defense all year. The Bills have been playing "must win" games for the past two months. Their injuries and fatigue will catch up to them today.

The weather -- cold, but not bitter, with light winds and no snow -- should be no impediment to the offenses. Five of the last six Buffalo playoff games have exceeded this total, four by a substantial amount. Each reached the 60s in regulation, with the opponent Kansas City twice. The Chiefs' offense has been spotty, but Patrick Mahomes could capitalize on the Bills' banged-up secondary. Mahomes versus Josh Kelly simply has emits the feeling of a points-fest.

The Chiefs have leaned on their top five defense all year long, and I expect another strong performance from them today. The Bills should look to establish the run, which will slow the pace of this game down. Temperatures in Buffalo will be below 30 degrees, with 10+ MPH winds to boot. The public betting market does not seem to care, with more than 65% of the bets currently on the Over. The total moved from 46 to 45.5 despite that, signaling some minor reverse line movement. I'll take the Under here above this key number of 45, and look for playoff defense in the cold.

The Bills had their chance to put the sword to the Steelers in the first half of Monday's Wild Card game, ready to stretch a 21-0 lead to 24-0 before the Steelers would block a field goal and eventually climb within 24-17 in the 4th Q. We are simply not overly impressed by Buffalo's current six-game win streak. Though the Bills have won the last three regular-season meetings (all at Arrowhead, by the way) and Patrick Mahomes hasn't technically played a game as a visitor in the postseason (though the Chiefs were indeed playing at Tampa Bay's own Raymond James Stadium when the Bucs won the Supe three years ago), and Mahomes has won two other Super Bowls on neutral fields. Play Chiefs

Refer back to early December and the regular-season meeting that was taut and low scoring, ending up 20-17 in Buffalo's favor (albeit with a bit of controversy at the end). The low-scoring bent has been Kansas City's pattern all season, with Patrick Mahomes lacking big-play wideouts in the Chiefs; post-Tyreek Hill world, instead moving in slower and shorter chunks with short-to-intermediate range passes. The defense has also been stout enough to help result in a 10-3 "under" mark the past 13 games into the weekend. expect a pace and scoreline similar to the December meeting, even if the venues have flipped from the last five series meetings that have all been played in Kansas City. Play Chiefs-Bills "Under"

The Chiefs have woken up a bit offensively in their past two meaningful games (excluding Week 18), with Isiah Pacheco helping to lead the way. He put up 165 yards from scrimmage in Week 17 vs. Cincinnati, then 88 last week vs. Miami. Pacheco didn't play in the regular-season matchup with Buffalo but should have a huge role Sunday evening. Buffalo has allowed 4.7 yards per carry over its past three games and enters the divisional playoffs extremely banged-up on defense.

Shakir didn't hit this total in his last game, but he did hit it in the 3 games prior. With Gabe Davis out and Diggs getting the attention of Kansas City's best defensive back (Sneed) I think a lot of the 225+ projected passing yards from Josh Allen funnel to Shakir and Dalton Kincaid. Shakir doesn't get a full compliment of snaps when Knox is healthy, but he should see enough work to eclipse this total.

Allen had 42 pass attempts at Kansas City in Week 14, and then topped 33 pass attempts just once since then -- at Miami in Week 18. Push comes to shove, the Bills will ride Allen to victory in important games, just as they've tried to do in each of four straight against the Chiefs when he attempted at least 37 passes including in two playoff games. It helps that Kansas City's run defense has been awesome: 3.7 yards per carry in its past five while holding Miami's amazing RBs to 3.0 yards per rush last week. That's forced the Chiefs' opponents to throw plenty -- three straight have attempted at least 33 passes, and 11 of 18 on the season have too.

I think Josh Allen will be the difference maker. It's not only tough to win back to back Super Bowls it is extremley hard to get to back to back Super Bowls. The Chiefs have been inconsistent all year long with the most dropped passes in the NFL. Buffalo is ready to move past the Chiefs.

This is the best way to beat this Bills defense. Linebackers are dropping by the day and they are getting killed up the middle as others have mentioned. Isaiah Pacheco's dominant run game was a large part of the Chiefs playoff run last year, and he was given a similar large role against Miami last week with 24 carries. I expect another large performance from him this weekend.

The Bills have found their stride on the ground. James Cook has had 15+ carries in 4 of their last 5 games and should continue to get heavy usage with Ty Johnson as a 3rd down RB. The Chief's defensive improvements this season came from pass defense (sacks, interceptions, YPA allowed) but their rush defense allowed more rushing yards and same YPC (4.4) as last season. Our model has Cook projected for 80 yards.

This line has moved up a couple of yards thanks to bettors paying attention to Kincaid's recent impact and the fact that Gabe Davis' status may be trending in the wrong direction. Either way, Kincaid has been excellent lately, easily surpassing this yardage total in 3 straight games (59, 84, 87) while averaging 7 targets per game. The Bills went out and spent big time draft capital on Kincaid in the 2023 draft and it was for these playoff moments. I suspect Kincaid will be a primary target over the middle of the field in this huge game against Kansas City.

The Bills have been on the right side of this rivalry in the regular season lately but very much on the wrong side in the playoffs. However, this is Patrick Mahomes' first road playoff game of his career and he's headed to Buffalo ... not exactly the easiest place to play. The Bills are rolling right now and I expect them to come out on top. Paying up to take the moneyline (vs the juiced spread) is the move in a game that could easily come down to a walkoff field goal.

I enjoy picking field goal props, especially overs, but this one feels like the exception. Though Butker is an excellent kicker who has gone 12 of 12 in his last three games, Buffalo simply doesn't give up made field goals at a high rate. In their last 11 games, only twice has a kicker made two or more field goals. With high wind gusts likely in the forecast for Sunday, I'll fade Butker and stick with Kansas City touchdowns instead.

This is a rematch of a game the Bills won 20-17 in December, and in that game Josh Allen threw an interception, which he did in 14 of 17 regular-season games before keeping a clean sheet against the Steelers last week. Yet this number is depressed because the Chiefs have just eight defensive interceptions on the season, though one did come in that first Bills game. The games where Allen didn't throw an interception in the regular season, Buffalo won by 28, 28 and 18 points. This profiles as a much different game, and I expect him to put the ball at risk and turn it over at least once via an interception.

I love what I've seen from the Chiefs rushing attack and Isaiah Pacheco. It's taken over 20 years but Andy Reid finally looks committed to running the football consistently. The Bills have been shredded up the middle surrendering 4.6 yards per carry which is 28th in the NFL this season. Look for Pacheco to continue to grind out tough yards up the middle of this soft Buffalo run defense.

Initially I was leaning Buffalo, which has won six straight, but after seeing the Bills' injury situation on defense I have to take a full field goal with Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have the rest edge by two days, but more importantly their offense has begun to wake up. After averaging 7.0 yards per play versus Cincinnati in Week 17 -- Week 18 was meaningless -- the Chiefs piled up 409 yards vs. Miami in the 26-7 Wildcard win. That included five pass plays of 20-plus yards. Kansas City's defense ranks third in dropback EPA and will make Josh Allen more uncomfortable than the T.J. Watt-less Steelers did.

I was kind of hoping that within the first 24 hours this market would tick up given the way these offenses have operated in the past. But now I'm not positive it will go in that direction so I'm under now. Teams are 24-12 to the under. Chiefs road games closed at 43.75 on average and produced an average of 39 points (-4.75, biggest neg margin in NFL). Bills home games closed at 46 and produced 44. Teams played a 20-17 game at Arrowhead. Bills run ball most in the NFL since Week 11 and KC's tepid RZ offense and inefficient pass game, especially on the road, will lead to lots of runs. Both defenses struggle vs the run. I'm thinking 24-21

In December, the Buffalo Bills had two weeks to prepare when they defeated the Chiefs 20-17 as 1-point road dogs. Also, the Chiefs were without their top two linebackers. This time, the Chiefs will have the rest advantage (two days), and the Bills are dealing with numerous injuries, especially on defense. I think it’s a tall task for backups to contain Patrick Mahomes and company this time of year. The Chiefs own the better DVOA defense (#7 vs. #12) and special teams (#6 vs. #15). Finally, Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, winning seven of those games outright. I like the road dog in this spot!

Kelce may be slowing down, but he's still one of very few pass catchers Patrick Mahomes can trust in his first road playoff game. He's still getting a strong timeshare in this offense and remains a go-to guy in critical situations. Bills are beat up in the secondary. Kelce averages 8 catches for 88 yards in the playoffs, he had 71 yards last week and caught 6 balls for 83 yards in the first meeting with the Bills and if Mahomes is going to go down earlier in the playoffs than he is accustomed to, it's going to be by feeding Kelce and Rice, the only guys who he can trust.

Mahomes is over this in two straight playoff games and doesn't need a lot of carries to do it. Third down this D will have its hands full containing him. He averaged 25 rush yards/G this season. He runs more in close games and didn't activate his legs enough in the first meeting between these teams, a close Chiefs loss. Bills struggle to defend the run and Mahomes is over this in 2 od 3.

Patrick Mahomes has a passer rating 20 points higher throwing to Rice (126.5) than any other WR or TE. He completes 76% of those throws for over 9 yards a pass and that connection is stronger now than ever. Bills dealing with some serious injuries to their secondary and when Mahomes does take deep shots, this is the guy. Rice has 72+ yards in five of the last seven and 9+ targets in six of seven and could easily go for 100 here. Bills had issues with George Pickens last week and Rice knows how to find the holes in these zones on crossers.

KC couldn't figure it out even at home, as evidenced again last week vs the wilting Dolphins. The one thing going for them around the goal line is Pacheco, who has a TD in five straight games (6 total in that span). Even Kelce isn't a thing there anymore. Andy Reid needs a sure thing. Bills were 2nd in passing TDs allowed and 11th in rushing. KC had 27th ranked RZ offense on the road. Run damn ball with an OL whose OTs struggle in pass pro, especially on the road.

This ain't the normal Chiefs offense and it was even more bleak passing the ball on the road (10 TDs/ 8 INTs in 7 domestic games). Andy Reid ran ball much more this time last year and will lean into volume hear with his lead dog and tone setter. He's over this in four of the last five games and I think this is more like a 20 carry game than 15, actually. Bills were 28th vs the rush and this should be close throughout. He missed the first meeting between these teams but I think he would have featured very heavily in that game plan..

We just missed this last week because somehow Cook caught four balls for just five yards vs PIT. But Chiefs pass D is much better than PIT and the ground is where they are vulnerable and I see another 16+ carry game for Cook here. He carried Bills to heavy first half lead in the first meeting. He had 5 catches for 83 yards and TD in the first 30 mins then. His pass yard production osculates but I see him running for over 70 again here and chipping in plenty in the screen game.

Fifty is the major number here. Allen averages over 50 rushing yards in the playoffs and his legs have been fully activated recently and this defense has some major issues stopping it. His career playoff average is 6 rushes for 52 yards. He's easily over this in four of the last six weeks and when games are close he tends to run even more. Last week's pounding of PIT will buoy him more. Ran 10 times for 32 vs the Chiefs but I suspect he runs over people more here.

Chiefs defense is legit and Allen needs to keep the main thing the main thing in the RZ here. Cashed again last week, he's running as much now as ever and they don't have a RB who's emerged as a drive finisher. It's hit in 6 of 7 games and 10 of 12. Designed runs for him have trended up and the Chiefs D is leaky against the run. It cashed vs KC at Arrowhead.

The Chiefs are looking for revenge after losing to the Bills at home this season, something that's happened in the regular season for three straight years. But this Bills team is better than years past, while the Chiefs have not looked like themselves, again stalling out in the red zone repeatedly in the win over the Dolphins. It's hard to see the offense as it is now replicating the iconic OT shootout between these teams from two years ago. The Bills certainly aren't a team without flaws, but the Josh Allen that showed up against the Steelers that avoided dumb mistakes is capable of beating anyone. I worry about the Bills' linebacker injuries, but they should be laying more than a field goal here.