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Sun, Jan 079:25 pm UTCSoFi Stadium
Track OnCBS Sports
Kansas City
Chiefs
KC
Last 5 ATS
W/L11-6
ATS9-7
O/U5-12-0
FINAL SCORE
13
-
12
Los Angeles
Chargers
LAC
Last 5 ATS
W/L5-12
ATS6-11
O/U5-12-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
11-6
Win /Loss
5-12
9-7
Spread
6-11
5-12-0
Over / Under
5-12-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
KC @ LAC
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MONEYLINE
KC @ LAC
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OVER / UNDER
KC @ LAC
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40%
PUBLIC
60%
MONEY
44%
PUBLIC
56%
MONEY
Over38%
PUBLIC
Under62%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Point SpreadKansas City +3 -102
WIN
Unit1.0
+739
47-36-4 in Last 87 NFL ATS Picks
+340
9-5 in Last 14 KC ATS Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

No Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid rests several other starters for the Chiefs, who are locked into the AFC's number three seed regardless of the result. Blaine Gabbert thus gets his chance at QB, but we wonder why the Chargers still have to be favored. After all, they're not playing for anything, either, haven't won since Easton Stick replaced the injured Justin Herbert at QB (and Herbert wasn't winning, either, losing four of his last five starts), and this is likely the final game for Bolts interim HC Giff Smith. Even against an under-strength KC, laying points with the Chargers looks an undue risk. Play Chiefs

Pick Made: Jan 07, 5:45 pm UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadL.A. Chargers -3.5 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+2450
202-148-2 in Last 352 NFL Picks
+1754
79-55-2 in Last 136 NFL ATS Picks
+1016
34-21-4 in Last 59 LAC ATS Picks
Larry's Analysis:

No team cares less about Week 18 than the defending Super Bowl champs. Three Chiefs starters could see some action to hit milestones: Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Chris Jones. But otherwise, Andy Reid and his staff are busy scouting potential playoff opponents. The Chargers are playing hard for interim coach Giff Smith and, Joshua Palmer's return from a concussion will help Easton Stick. Lay the points.

Pick Made: Jan 07, 5:24 am UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadKansas City +3.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+496
25-18-2 in Last 45 NFL Picks
+258
16-12-2 in Last 30 NFL ATS Picks
+142
6-4 in Last 10 LAC ATS Picks
Micah's Analysis:

The Chargers will be fired up with hopes to close the year out strong even though they’re 1-7 in their last eight games, half with Justin Herbert and the other half with Easton Stick. Herbert won the lone game, 6-0, at New England. The Chiefs are resting Patrick Mahomes (Blaine Gabbert is starting) and a few other key players, but the Chargers don’t have WR Keenan Allen or DE Joey Bosa. The Chiefs that are playing are a better group than what the Chargers are offering and the SoFi Stadium crowd will be pro-Chiefs. I took the points with the Chiefs.

Pick Made: Jan 05, 11:11 pm UTC on Bet365NewJersey
Point SpreadKansas City +3.5 -108
WIN
Unit1.0
+1733
78-61-3 in Last 142 NFL ATS Picks
+1453
37-21-2 in Last 60 LAC ATS Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

Blaine Gabbert is set to start for the Chiefs, which has tipped this line through the key number of 3. But are he and the weapons who won't be resting for the Chiefs any worse than who the Chargers offense will throw on the field? Perhaps Joshua Palmer returns, but Easton Stick has led one TD drive in non-garbage time in his three starts, and that was a 27-yard drive following an interception. I can't see this Chargers offense scoring much against a Chiefs defense that can only rest so many people, and Gabbert should do enough to get a cover and potentially win.

Pick Made: Jan 04, 4:10 pm UTC on DraftKings
Money LineL.A. Chargers -120
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1096
42-17 in Last 59 NFL ML Picks
+465
10-3 in Last 13 LAC ML Picks
Matt's Analysis:

No way Andy Reid plays his starters with the Chiefs locked into the No. 3 seed and playing on Wild Card Weekend, which Patrick Mahomes has rarely done. In past instances when the Chiefs had nothing to play for in the season’s final week, Reid has kept his main guys out. The last such instance was in 2020 when KC went with its backups in a 38-21 loss to the Chargers after clinching the No. 1 seed.

Pick Made: Jan 01, 6:44 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Point SpreadL.A. Chargers -1.5 -104
LOSS
Unit1.0
+917
83-66-3 in Last 152 NFL Picks
+362
26-20 in Last 46 NFL ATS Picks
+1170
33-19-2 in Last 54 LAC ATS Picks
Mike's Analysis:

The Chiefs cannot move out of their playoff seed (third in the AFC), which makes for the only conceivable scenario in which they would be underdog to a team whose only straight-up win in the last eight outings was 6-0 against the even more lowly Patriots. Coach Andy Reid has been around the block enough to know there is no purpose in deploying K.C. starters. QB Easton Stick prepares for his fifth start in lieu of the injured Justin Herbert and has shown glimpses of promise. Interim coach Giff Smith, with no chance of the permanent job, will strive to go out with a win.

Pick Made: Jan 01, 5:20 pm UTC on FanDuel

Team Injuries

Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday, May 29, 2025
Avatar
OT
Josh Simmons
KneeQuestionable
Thursday, May 01, 2025
Avatar
QB
Gardner Minshew
CollarboneQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Rashee Rice
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Skyy Moore
AbdomenQuestionable
Tuesday, Feb 11, 2025
Avatar
TE
Jared Wiley
Knee - ACLQuestionable
Los Angeles Chargers
Thursday, May 29, 2025
Avatar
CB
Eric Rogers
UndisclosedQuestionable
Avatar
OG
Branson Taylor
KneeOfs
Thursday, May 01, 2025
Avatar
CB
Ja'Sir Taylor
RibsQuestionable
Avatar
CB
Elijah Molden
Knee - MeniscusQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Daiyan Henley
Shoulder - LabrumQuestionable
Avatar
OT
Trey Pipkins
ObliqueQuestionable
Avatar
CB
Cam Hart
ShoulderQuestionable

Season Splits

All Games
ALL
All Games
56%
9-7
6-10
38%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
62%
5-3
3-5
38%
As Underdog or PK
STATUS
As Favorite
0%
0-0
4-4
50%
When Spread was +2 to +5
SPREAD
When Spread was -5 to -2
0%
0-0
2-4
33%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
0%
0-0
2-2
50%
vs Teams That Win <40% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
67%
4-2
2-4
33%
vs Teams Allowing 21 to 25 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <21 PPG
80%
4-1
2-7
22%
After <=8 Days Off
REST
After <=8 Days Off
58%
7-5
5-8
38%
vs LAC
HEAD TO HEAD
vs KC
100%
1-0
0-1
0%
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