It's a green light for Tyreek Hill, which tilts the scales toward Miami. Coach Mike McDaniel's call to hold out Hill and other ailing Dolphins last weekend might pay off. With the dynamic WR apparently able to play, it's Dallas who is hurting more with a few key absences. If the tiny spread holds up, Miami will enter with an 8-2 ATS record as a favorite and the Cowboys 0-3 as underdogs. Further, Dallas has dropped four of its last six outright away from home.

One trend will be broken in this game. Either the Dolphins will finally beat a quality team, or the Cowboys will show up away from home against an upper-tier opponent. We're going to bank on the former as the Dolphins fight to stay atop the AFC East amid a tough season-ending stretch.

The market is down on the Cowboys after their 31-10 beatdown loss to the Bills. However, I see no reason to trust the Dolphins as favorites in this spot. Miami has coasted to ten wins on the back of an easy schedule, facing the weakest opposing offenses out of any NFL team. Here are their wins- Jets 2x, Patriots 2x, Chargers, Giants, Panthers, Raiders, Commanders... They are going to have to prove to me that they can beat a contender. Dallas' run defense struggled last week, and they will need to bring a game plan that limits Miami's potent ground attack. If they can do so, I see their pass rush to give Tua Tagovailoa fits all day long.

In truth, these might be the respective AFC and NFC versions of one another, as have little faith either of these often-flashy sides will be able to go on the road in January and win a playoff game. But the difference here is that Dallas is out on the road vs. quality opposition where its bully tendencies rarely seem to manifest (unless facing the Giants or Panthers). The Dallas offense is about half as productive away from Arlington (21 ppg on road, 39 ppg at home), and Mike McDaniel must be licking his chops at the thought of attack a Cowboys defense that looked helpless last week trying to slow James Cook and the Bills. Play Dolphins

Raheem Mostert seems to get betting all the Lead back work, however, Achane has a growing role in the passing game (especially with Tyreek Hill not 100%). In fact, over the last 3 games Achane has accumulated over half of his total receptions on the year (11-21). Additionally, Achane has reached at least 24 receiving yards in each of the last three games and the high total of 51.5 points suggests a lot of passing.

Last week we witnessed the optimal gameplan when playing Dallas and that is running the football. While we may think Miami is a pass heavy team, Tua has only hit this pass attempt over in 1 of his last 6 games. I expect Tua to be relatively efficient, but I don't think we see a ton of volume. In fact, I expect both teams to play a little more ball control than normal.

While Miami's defense has been excellent for most of the season, Prescott is also playing at a very high level, with the exception of last week's dud in Buffalo. The Dolphins are excellent against the run but fairly average against the pass, and in what should be a back-and-forth affair, I expect Dak to put it up early and often. He has 30+ attempts in each of his last nine games and has been over this prop six times this season. I would recommend this over passing yards for Prescott in the event he has another poor performance like last week (134 yards passing on 34 attempts).

Dallas is 32nd in the NFL defending outside zone runs (5.2/carry) and 32nd in yards before contact against OZ. Mostert is 2nd only to CMC with 551 yards in OZ this season, averaging 5.4/carry. Miami runs it the third most of any NFL team. Cowboys could not stop 49ers run game (essentially the Miami run game) and while Miami OL isn't as good, Mostert has an innate feel for when to cutback.

When the 49ers, coached by Kyle Shanahan, the longtime coach and boss of Miami coach Mike McDaniel, faced the Cowboys the set out a blueprint for how Miami will gouge them. Cowboys suck against fullbacks and Miami has a good one. The 49ers FB scored against Dallas. Maybe they run a copycat play. Ingold has yet to score this season but he does have four in his career.

Mostert can score in the run or pass game and doesn't have to be in the redzone to do it. Has hit this in two straight games. And three of the last four. Dallas has a secondary that tends to make big plays and Dan Quinn might be able to scheme things up to eliminate the home run ball for a score. Tyreek Hill has been banged up. Mostert can be used just like James Cook was last week and the Cowboys will be in fits. He has an uncanny nose for the endzone

Achane hasn't looked as explosive in recent weeks, and Mostert is getting plenty of run. Already 18 TDs this season. He has failed to do this only 3 times this season. And he is facing a bad Dallas run D here, coming off a week in which they were on the field 36 minutes. Dallas has allowed 9 rushing TDs on the road, 26th in NFL. Mostert has scored in 4 straight games

Miami is AFC's version of the 49ers, with Mike McDaniel Kyle Shanahan's former run guru. SF crushed Dallas and ran 41 times while scoring 42 points. SF and MIA are top 2 in use of a FB and running Outside Zone. DAL is 32nd in NFL in YPC allowed and Yd Before Contact vs Outside Zone. DAL is 32nd in YPC allowed with a FB on field. BUF just held ball for 35 min and gutted DAL D. DAL is 0-3 on grass allowing 31, 28 and 42 points. Throw out the 70 MIA put on DEN and Fins still average 30 PG at home. McDaniel will run it down their throats. Could be slick out. A little muggy. Dallas (3-4 on road) will wilt.