This play is super chalky but probably the safest player prop in this game. Conklin caught all 13 of his targets combined over Zach Wilson's past two starts and has at least three receptions in nine games this season.

Two things can be true. Zach Wilson is the Jets’ best active QB and never should have been benched for Tim Boyle. New York has problems beyond QB. There’s something to be said for how Wilson plays when his back is against the wall; he always seems to surprise, and that could be the case Sunday. But the Texans have won four of five – all against better QBs – and shown an ability to stop the run, the Jets’ best way of generating offense. Houston still has plenty of weapons with Tank Dell out (Nico Collins, anyone?). The weather will keep this low-scoring, which is partially why the line has been halved (-6), but this could be a pull-away Texans win.

The Jets are tied for fourth in the NFL with 12 INTs and, although Stroud has thrown just 5 INTs on the season, poor weather conditions and game script should disrupt his comfort zone.

Maybe it's fitting that in a turmoil-filled season for the Jets, much-maligned QB Zach Wilson has the chance to go from scapegoat to hero... again. He might not play terribly well, but he gives the Jets their best chance to break their five-game skid. This is a favorable spot for NYJ amid poor weather and a Texans club with a banged-up WR unit playing its first road game in nearly a month.

Noah Brown returned from a two-week injury absence (knee) in Week 13 and didn't do much in 55 snaps, getting targeted twice with zero catches. Now he faces Jets lockdown corner Sauce Gardner in a game that could feature heavy rain. Even though Houston's Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz are out, I'll fade Brown in this particular matchup.

So Trevor Siemian is going to be throwing picks and incomplete passes for the Jets these days, eh? The Jets stink at home (2-5) regardless of the QB and have lost five in a row by an average of 15 points and even the Falcons nearly covered on them Sun. I’d have a more reservations about a young dome team on the road this late in the season if Texans hadn't comeback at Cincy. Texans will stack the box and negate Breece Hall and the Jets cant move the ball. Houston can cover this with just field goals if need be, but Texans also could be healthier at tight end, and have already been surging with Tank Dell ailing in recent weeks.