It took an injury to incumbent starter Kenny Pickett for the Steelers to start the best passing QB on their roster. This is a timely transition against New England's top-ranked rushing defense. The Steelers will likely have to pass more than they would prefer, and Trubisky has clipped this number in three of his past four starts. He has decent downfield accuracy and also has a connection with WR Diontae Johnson, which should help in this matchup.

If I'm not mistaken, this was 12.5 earlier today. Not really sure why it rose past what could be a very important number 13 with the Pats comically thin at running back and wideout. Barring a defensive touchdown are they really scoring at least 14 points?

The Patriots will reply on Zeke. This is my best play. Pats should have 26 rush att. Zeke should get at least 16

The Patriots elevated running back Kevin Harris from the practice squad, and he should get a few carries spelling Ezekiel Elliott. I still like Elliott to rack up at least 16 carries because New England won't want to expose Bailey Zappe to the Steelers' pass rush. Even though linebacker Elandon Roberts (groin) will play through his questionable tag, the Steelers are weak at that position and the Pats will stick with the run game.

Zeke is a GREAT pass blocker. He knows the role. And Hoodie throws it to his backs. For example, RStevenson was THIRD among RBs last year in receptions. Now that it Elliott’s role. I expect Zeke to catch 3 balls and go over this total.

The Pats have allowed 10 or less in four straight. Yep, they have lost all 4. I’ll pay to find out if a backup QB and new OC can break that streak and then score again to get to 18.

The Pats D has allowed 10 or less in three straight. Ironically, they have lost all three. But they do stop the run. Harris is in a time split and the Steelers only run about 55 plays (5 less than average). I project under

13.5 is an interesting number. Unless you think the Pats will score a TD AND kick THREE FGs this bet is simply:will the Pats score 2 TDs? No.

Let's be clear that I will not be watching any of this eyesore. Rather watch "A Jersey Shore Christmas" in IMAX (kill me). OK, I might check in once to remind myself of an unanswered question(s) that haunts me: What kind of magic mushrooms was former Bears GM Ryan Pace taking ahead of the 2017 NFL Draft regarding Mitchell Trubisky? And are they legal/where to find them? No other excuse. Not that I'm still bitter. This ML has come down to a semi-reasonable number to where I'm fine solo but definitely will include it elsewhere off site ... likely with UNCG basketball ML (pays about even money). Half unit just this. If the Steelers lose with every possible edge, they are dead to me.

Mitch Trubisky for Bailey Zappe??? Well I'm taking neither one but betting under the total. My bet is all bases off of New England's lack of offense and their solid defense the last three games. The Patriots are 0-3 while being outscored 26-13. Yes that's right just 39 total points in their last three games. Wow! keep it up or should I say keep it down Patriots.

Current betting psychology (thanks maybe to Iowa) now says it's okay to look "under" a total so low, like this one that is the lowest NFL "total" in memory. With these two offenses, getting to 30 looks a tall mountain to climb, and the Patriots further hampered by top RB Rhamondre Stevenson's injury. Bailey Zappe couldn't score last week vs. the Chargers, and Mitch Trubisky hardly electrifies in for Kenny Pickett on the Steelers side. Maybe the Patriots should just punt immediately every time they get possession, and wait for Trubisky to make a mistake? These two keep going "under" and no reason for that to change on Thursday. Play Patriots-Steelers "Under"

Just playing a hunch here. Robinson was the No 1 WR for quite some time in Chicago and overlapped with now-Steelers QB Mitch Trubisky. Those two, as spare parts in this offense, probably spent a fair amount of time in practice together, too. Obviously a very low number, He caught all three targets last week with Trubisky taking over for Pickett midgame. He's over this in two of the last three games. Robinson should show up in high-percentage passing areas on the field and not a big downfield guy. Mitch will be looking to hit the layups.

Very small sample size, so make of it what you will, but Zee has 48 receiving yards from Bailey Zappe in two games, second-most on the team. No Stevenson means leaning even more on Zeke and the Steelers run defense has gotten very stout since Cam Heyward returned. But I don't see Zappe pushing it downfield much, so that means plenty of looks for Zeke. He had 40 receiving yards last week most coming after Stevenson left the game. Zappe can run around more outside the pocket leading to more checkdowns on the run. He has 15 or more in three of the last four and that was when splitting the backfield role.

This is a tough spot for Najee who was unable to practice all week and was ultimately a GTD heading into TNF. He is expected to suit up but is likely operating at less than 100% facing New England's top rated run defense. The Pats are 1st in EPA allowed per rush and Najee is likely to cede touches to Jaylen Warren who has been the most effective RB for PIT. Look for Najee to take more of a backseat role against the Patriots tonight in what is a very difficult matchup.

The Patriots have lost five straight and each game gets less amount of scoring. They scored 17 twice, then 6, then 7, and then zero last week. Their last win was beating the Bills on Oct. 22. They’ve stayed Under the total in their last four, and nine of 12, and the Steelers have stayed Under in 10 of 12. The Steelers lost at home last week to Arizona, 24-10, in a poor weather game and also lost QB Kenny Pickett giving us Mitch Trubisky to start for the next three weeks. I took the points with the Patriots.

When you need a bounce back coming off a bad loss, it's nice to know you've got the Patriots on the doorstep. The Steelers need to win this game and get the benefit of Bailey Zappe at QB and problematic injuries to the Patriot skill players (namely Rhamondre Stevenson and Demario Douglas). The Steelers will have a tough time running and moving the ball, but over four quarters they'll find their way to the end zone and I can't say I'm confident that the Patriots can do the same. Look for Mitch Trubisky, the run game and the defense to do just enough to cover this spread.

The Pats have allowed 10 or fewer points in three straight games and are facing a Mitchell Trubisky-led Steelers team that has scored 16 offensive touchdowns in 12 games. New England just held the Chargers to 1.2 yards per carry; the Pats are No. 1 in EPA against the run. Both teams figure to run the ball plenty, keeping the clock moving. With the Patriots' offense not posing much of a threat, Mike Tomlin will play this close to the vest and be more than satisfied with a 16-12 type of win.

The Patriots defense is stingy and the Steelers offense is broken. New Engand is a top six redzone defense and the Steelers have no ideas themselves in the redzone (29th). Mike Tomlin knows the Patriots can't score, so two field goals might be enough here like it was for the Chargers on Sunday. Mitch Trubisky looks awful so I see a conservative approach overall. Each of these offenses has produced just 16 offensive TDs, tied for third-worst in the NFL. Boswell had a rare miss last week but has at least 2 FGA in every home game and 9 of 11 overall, and unlike most of the East Coast this weekend, this Thursday forecast isn't looking bad for kicking.

In what should be a very good defensive matchup between both teams, the end result will come down to which QB do you trust the most. From that perspective, it's hard not to trust the veteran QB Mitchell Trubisky of Pittsburgh and the assortment of playmakers he has on offense.

The Patriots have scored a total of 13 points over the past three games, and they won't have Rhamondre Stevenson or Demario Douglas on Thursday. They can still cover, though, by attacking Pittsburgh's weakness. The Steelers had already suffered season-ending injuries to Kwon Alexander and Cole Holcomb at inside linebacker, then Elandon Roberts left in the first half Sunday with a groin injury. He's questionable tor TNF. Without Roberts getting everyone lined up right, Pittsburgh crumbled in a 24-10 loss to lowly Arizona. There's a huge dropoff after Roberts. Look for Ezekiel Elliott to move the chains and for Tyquan Thornton to make a couple big plays as New England scores 10-13 points, which should be enough to cover.

The Steelers now have two offensive coordinators who refuse to lean into all that Warren can provide in space. No excuse for him not getting 3-5 catches a game, especially in this horrible Steelers offense. NE is No. 1 vs the run, but allow 83% completions to RBs and Mitch Trubisky has to lean into checkdown game. Warren so fast and elusive. PIT allows 5.0/carry on runs to the right end, Warren over 7/carry on outside runs in that direction.

If this was at 1pm maybe I'd pass. Buit's one of the final TNF games of the year and I'm on it. The prime time under trend is real and these are bottom 3 offenses in the NFL (each have 16 Offensive TDs). And now PIT is shifting to a backup QB on a short week. Both coaches want to run the ball 40 times but Pats now without their top RB and Steelers refuse to feature their most dynamic player on offense (Warren). These teams in their last 3 games have produced 49 points COMBINED. They have allowed just 73 points in those 3 games. New England just got shutout at home by Brandon Staley for goodness sake. Under or bust for me