The Packers have burned me a few times this season and this will be it for me on them if they lose. If they do at home on a cold, rainy day against a warm-weather team missing its starting quarterback (and a starting right tackle and linebacker), well, Matt LaFleur better get working on his resume. Jordan Love, too.

Love is sort of quietly underrated in the props market. He hit this total last week on the final drive but would have had it much sooner if not for drops and penalties. Now he faces Rams defense that yielded 304 passing yards to Dak Prescott of Dallas last week in a little more than three quarters of work.

It's tough to lay this many points with a Green Bay team that has lost four straight. But the Packers should make a pretty safe parlay piece or small play against a stumbling Rams club that is starting journeyman Brett Rypien at QB.

Kudos to those who grabbed Green Bay at -3 before the Rams declared QB Matthew Stafford out. The hook could make a difference, but fill-in Brett Rypien has tossed twice as many interceptions (eight) as touchdowns (four) in limited action through four seasons. The Packers are on an 0-4 ATS slide largely because of slow starts. They have not scored an offensive TD since six games ago. The bright side for them is, Rams coach Sean McVay stands 3-7 outright with neither Stafford nor Jared Goff behind center. Green Bay, with the youngest roster in the league, figures to improve. A crippled opponent is a logical launching point.

Packers linebacker De'Vondre Campbell was out over a month with an ankle injury. He returned last Sunday, played 92 percent of the snaps and dominated. He racked up 14 tackles, 10 solo, and had 1.5 tackles for loss. In his last two healthy games, Campbell recorded 14 tackles each time.

The Packers offense continues to be MIA, again getting off to a slow start and failing to rally fully in the second half. But the Rams defense appears to be fading and has given up 23 points or more in four of their last five games. That unit needs the offense to keep them in the game, but Matthew Stafford might not play with his thumb injury or be limited throwing the ball if he does suit up. That should give a good Packers defense the chance to win the game in a place with a great home-field advantage. I'm taking this now before it gets above 3, where I couldn't trust the Packers offense.