C.J. Stroud has been even better than anticipated, but the fact he still hasn’t thrown an interception hasn’t been all due to great play — the rookie could’ve been picked a few times last week, but had luck and slippery Falcons fingers on his side. The law of averages says that won't continue, and when's a more likely week for Stroud to make some rookie plays than against a dominating Saints defense? Ride with the stronger team in a game with a small spread.

Earlier in the week I was leaning New Orleans coming off the team's dominant performance in New England. But upon closer inspection, the Saints' offense is still not clicking: 4.4 yards per play, which ranks 29th, and 19.2 points per game, which ranks 22nd. They are rock-solid defensively, to be sure, but it's hard to ignore Derek Carr's 5-15-2 ATS mark as a road favorite. With the young, feisty Texans playing at home in their last game before their bye, look for an extremely focused effort and a potential upset.

Houston's C.J. Stroud, off to an applause-worth career start, has yet to confront a defense as nasty as New Orleans', which is ranked fourth for passing and total yards yielded. The Saints historically are harsh on rookie QBs, and Stroud likely won't have concussed WR Tank Dell with whom to hook up. It's taken awhile for new Saints QB Derek Carr to acclimate himself. He's almost there, boosted majorly by RB Alvin Kamara, who missed three games while on suspension. New Orleans finally scored north of 20 points last Sunday. Get there against the Texans, and a W is probable.

The Saints are coming off a dominant win over the Patriots, but the offense only managed 4.3 yards per play while getting six points on two negative yardage drives. Just two of their 12 real drives went longer than 50 yards, and six others didn't gain 10 yards. The Saints defense has faced a lot of limited offenses and now gets a Texans attack that's sixth in yards per pass and a QB that hasn't thrown a pick in five starts. The Texans are getting healthier on the O-line and in the secondary, and they have a clear coaching advantage in this game. Power ratings (including mine) will have Saints as the better team, but I don't know if I trust that right now.

That Saints defense simply doesn't allow more than 20 points, and it's hard to see Houston getting there with No. 1 WR Tank Dell expected out this week. I do think rookie QB CJ Stroud throws his first pick, although I'm not sure if I will actually play bet it yet. That NO defense made semi-experienced Mac Jones look like Holly Hobby in pads last Sunday. The Saints had failed to score 21 points offensively in 10 straight games before finally doing so last week. Half unit simply as a bit far out and haven't seen Saints injuries yet, but I do want to make sure I get past the magic number of 42.