Ready to take the Chiefs at -4 and am taking it here at -3.5, though a slightly juiced -3 is available and recommended. This is going to be a huge bounce back spot for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense, which struggled more than expected against the Jets last week only to now get the reprieve that is the Vikings. I have KC as a 5-point favorite in the game, giving nearly 2 points of value if you can get a field goal. Minnesota has not been as successful in one-score games as it was last year, and the running game will not be able to keep KC off the field.

Half unit simply as when I think clutch, Patrick Mahomes yes and Kirk Cousins no. There are a LOT of Chiefs fans in attendance as well but as far as I know not a certain one.

Let me say I like Kirk Cousins. He plays tough and isn't afraid to fire down the field at any moment. However that's also why I like playing his INT prop as well. Whether up or down on the scoreboard, Minnesota is throwing the ball. Not to mention our odds for a pick go up significantly when the Vikings are in the red zone. As long as the juice stays right we'll be playing this pretty much every week.

I don't care how many empty calorie stats Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is able to put up, I can't trust him vs a good defense. And yes, the Chiefs defense is actually pretty good, especially in the secondary. With the added possessions and the best QB in the game, expect Kansas City to easily cover this spread.

Pacheco has been over this in each of his past two games as Kansas City has become comfortable with him as its lead running back. In fact, last week he set a career high in snaps played with 60% while rushing 20 times. He's also rushed for over 4.0 yards per carry in each of his past three games, so he's effective. The Vikings have seen a running back go over 13.5 rushes in three of four games this year - the only time it didn't happen was in Week 3 against a Chargers offense that likes to throw the ball as much as the Vikings do!

Memories of Hank Stram's "65 Toss Power Trap" from Super Bowl IV will always be recalled for this matchup. Yet don't see another 23-7-like score as was that long-ago SB, especially as Minny finally has a win under its belt, and the Vikes are notorious for playing ‘em close, So far they’re 0-3 in games decided by seven points or fewer...the same close calls in which they recorded a 9-0 mark last season. Whatever, with Kirk Cousins still firing away, and Steve Spagnuolo’s KC defense struggling to slow down Zach Wilson last week, the best bet is for another close one, a familiar development by now for both of these sides.

Kansas City emerged victorious against the Jets despite a below-average performance from Mahomes. This presents a great bounce-back opportunity in a controlled environment against a poor defensive unit that lacks the ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. The preseason lookahead line was -5.5, which is much closer to my simulation number of -6.1, with the Chiefs expected to score just over 30 points in this matchup.

I couldn't think of a better spot for Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is already a road warrior, and for his standards, this is also a get right game. The Vikings defensive line applies 28.5% pressure on opposing quarterbacks, ranking them 4th worst in the league. The Chiefs also have the advantage in the run game, out gaining the Vikings by 30+ yards, a situation they are 12-6 ATS in. The model has this as an 11-point victory for Kansas City. I'd like to assume Taylor Swift isn't traveling to Minnesota, so less distractions for the team too.