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Sun, Oct 088:25 pm UTCU.S. Bank Stadium
Track OnCBS Sports
Kansas City
Chiefs
KC
Last 5 ATS
W/L11-6
ATS9-7
O/U5-12-0
FINAL SCORE
27
-
20
Minnesota
Vikings
MIN
Last 5 ATS
W/L7-10
ATS7-7
O/U7-10-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
11-6
Win /Loss
7-10
9-7
Spread
7-7
5-12-0
Over / Under
7-10-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
KC @ MIN
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MONEYLINE
KC @ MIN
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OVER / UNDER
KC @ MIN
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64%
PUBLIC
36%
MONEY
78%
PUBLIC
22%
MONEY
Over89%
PUBLIC
Under11%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Point SpreadKansas City -3.5 +100
WIN
Unit1.0
+2294
84-55-8 in Last 147 NFL ATS Picks
+500
5-0 in Last 5 KC ATS Picks
Adam's Analysis:

Ready to take the Chiefs at -4 and am taking it here at -3.5, though a slightly juiced -3 is available and recommended. This is going to be a huge bounce back spot for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense, which struggled more than expected against the Jets last week only to now get the reprieve that is the Vikings. I have KC as a 5-point favorite in the game, giving nearly 2 points of value if you can get a field goal. Minnesota has not been as successful in one-score games as it was last year, and the running game will not be able to keep KC off the field.

Pick Made: Oct 08, 7:47 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Money LineKansas City -174
WIN
Unit0.5
+1096
42-17 in Last 59 NFL ML Picks
+713
13-4 in Last 17 MIN ML Picks
Matt's Analysis:

Half unit simply as when I think clutch, Patrick Mahomes yes and Kirk Cousins no. There are a LOT of Chiefs fans in attendance as well but as far as I know not a certain one.

Pick Made: Oct 08, 7:30 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Passing InterceptionsKirk Cousins Over 0.5 Total Passing Interceptions -137
LOSS
Unit1.0
Allan's Analysis:

Let me say I like Kirk Cousins. He plays tough and isn't afraid to fire down the field at any moment. However that's also why I like playing his INT prop as well. Whether up or down on the scoreboard, Minnesota is throwing the ball. Not to mention our odds for a pick go up significantly when the Vikings are in the red zone. As long as the juice stays right we'll be playing this pretty much every week.

Pick Made: Oct 08, 2:55 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Point SpreadKansas City -3.5 -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+290
4-1 in Last 5 NFL ATS Picks
+508
29-22-1 in Last 52 KC ATS Picks
Emory's Analysis:

I don't care how many empty calorie stats Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is able to put up, I can't trust him vs a good defense. And yes, the Chiefs defense is actually pretty good, especially in the secondary. With the added possessions and the best QB in the game, expect Kansas City to easily cover this spread.

Pick Made: Oct 07, 3:27 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Avatar
Total CarriesIsiah Pacheco Over 13.5 Total Carries -114
WIN
Unit1.5
+555
9-4 in Last 13 NFL Player Props Picks
Dave's Analysis:

Pacheco has been over this in each of his past two games as Kansas City has become comfortable with him as its lead running back. In fact, last week he set a career high in snaps played with 60% while rushing 20 times. He's also rushed for over 4.0 yards per carry in each of his past three games, so he's effective. The Vikings have seen a running back go over 13.5 rushes in three of four games this year - the only time it didn't happen was in Week 3 against a Chargers offense that likes to throw the ball as much as the Vikings do!

Pick Made: Oct 06, 8:11 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Point SpreadMinnesota +3.5 -105
LOSS
Unit1.0
+739
47-36-4 in Last 87 NFL ATS Picks
+340
9-5 in Last 14 KC ATS Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

Memories of Hank Stram's "65 Toss Power Trap" from Super Bowl IV will always be recalled for this matchup. Yet don't see another 23-7-like score as was that long-ago SB, especially as Minny finally has a win under its belt, and the Vikes are notorious for playing ‘em close, So far they’re 0-3 in games decided by seven points or fewer...the same close calls in which they recorded a 9-0 mark last season. Whatever, with Kirk Cousins still firing away, and Steve Spagnuolo’s KC defense struggling to slow down Zach Wilson last week, the best bet is for another close one, a familiar development by now for both of these sides.

Pick Made: Oct 06, 3:22 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Point SpreadKansas City -4 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+347.5
11-7-1 in Last 19 NFL Picks
+225
5-2 in Last 7 NFL ATS Picks
+285
4-1 in Last 5 KC ATS Picks
Mike's Analysis:

Kansas City emerged victorious against the Jets despite a below-average performance from Mahomes. This presents a great bounce-back opportunity in a controlled environment against a poor defensive unit that lacks the ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. The preseason lookahead line was -5.5, which is much closer to my simulation number of -6.1, with the Chiefs expected to score just over 30 points in this matchup.

Pick Made: Oct 05, 7:00 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadKansas City -5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+327
15-10 in Last 25 NFL Picks
Mackenzie's Analysis:

I couldn't think of a better spot for Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is already a road warrior, and for his standards, this is also a get right game. The Vikings defensive line applies 28.5% pressure on opposing quarterbacks, ranking them 4th worst in the league. The Chiefs also have the advantage in the run game, out gaining the Vikings by 30+ yards, a situation they are 12-6 ATS in. The model has this as an 11-point victory for Kansas City. I'd like to assume Taylor Swift isn't traveling to Minnesota, so less distractions for the team too.

Pick Made: Oct 03, 9:38 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey

Team Injuries

Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, Jun 02, 2025
Avatar
OT
Josh Simmons
KneeQuestionable
Tuesday, Feb 11, 2025
Avatar
TE
Jared Wiley
Knee - ACLQuestionable
Minnesota Vikings
Monday, Jun 02, 2025
Avatar
FB
C.J. Ham
AnkleQuestionable
Avatar
OG
Will Fries
Lower LegQuestionable
Monday, Apr 07, 2025
Avatar
DB
Mekhi Blackmon
Knee - ACLQuestionable
Tuesday, Feb 11, 2025
Avatar
OT
Christian Darrisaw
Knee - ACL + MCLQuestionable

Season Splits

All Games
ALL
All Games
50%
2-2
1-2-1
33%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
50%
1-1
0-2
0%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or PK
50%
2-2
0-0-1
0%
When Spread was -5 to -2
SPREAD
When Spread was +2 to +5
50%
1-1
0-0
0%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
50%
1-1
0-0
0%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
0%
0-0
0-0-1
0%
vs Teams Allowing >25 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 21 to 25 PPG
50%
1-1
1-2
33%
After <=8 Days Off
REST
After <=8 Days Off
50%
1-1
1-0-1
100%
vs MIN
HEAD TO HEAD
vs KC
0%
0-0
0-0
0%
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