I'm going over the total of 46.5. Denver and Chicago are 31st and 32nd in points per game allowed. The Bears are 3-0 to the over allowing 38, 27 and 41 points in their first three games. Denver gave up 35 points to Washington and 70 last week at Miami. The Broncos are 2-1 to the over in 2023. Bronco QB Russell Wilson is completing 65% of his passes for 7.6 yards per pass, six touchdown passes with two interceptions.

Russell Wilson seems to be all or nothing here. He put up 56 yards against Washington but only one yard in the other weeks. This should be a game where he tries his best to prove this wasn't the worst franchise decision the Broncos have made in recent history. Patrick Mahomes put up 28 yards on three carries against Chicago in just the first half. Our Model has Wilson projected for 18 yards, I think he should have plenty of opportunity to get here.

Keep an eye out for an alternate line of 250-plus yards at +113 -- that's the one to take. Wilson's played much better this season compared to last including being ranked top-six in yards per attempt, TD rate and off-target rate among qualifying QBs. The Bears, meanwhile, are sixth-worst in pressure rate, third lowest in blitz rate, they have one sack through three games, and the two interceptions they have came in garbage time against Blaine Gabbert last week. They're terrible against deep throws, too. This is a great bounce-back spot for the Denver offense.

Broncos tight end Adam Trautman has run a pass route on just 61% of his snaps. On the season, his target-per-route-run rate is 9.1%, which is icky, but in the past two weeks that number has been 4.6%, which is like barely seeing a blip on a heart monitor. He has caught zero passes in his last two games and the Broncos would be wise to look in other directions than his against Chicago. It's worth a sprinkle of your dough.

The Bears and Broncos have looked like two of the worst teams in the league in two points, yet the market has determined that not only are the Broncos clearly better, but significantly better. This is despite the defense allowing 14 TDs and two FG tries in its last 21 drives, a stretch that also includes a first-half ending, a run-the-clock 3-and-out and a turnover on downs at the end of the 70-20 loss. If the Bears offense, which had a lot of supporters before the season, is functional at all, Chicago should keep this close at home and potentially win.

Will update analysis today.

These two 0-3 teams are coming off blowout losses of 81 points combined, and while issues abound for each, their defenses in particular have been abysmal, ranking last and next-to-last in points and yards per pass attempt allowed. The Broncos offense has hit some big plays, which is why they're moderate favorites on the road here, and with the Bears' defensive injuries, I'm not sure how they stop anyone. I'm not giving the Denver defense a pass for the Miami game, because it was nearly as bad in the last three quarters against Washington. Expect a ton of points here.

Will update analysis shortly.