Brady has surpassed this number once in his last seven games, and the Panthers rank 11th in yards per pass attempt (6.5). Carolina will be running a lot, which means a running clock to keep Brady & Co. off the field. Brady’s average prop bet for passing yards this year has been 278.6. His actual passing average is below that by 0.1 yards per game. The Panthers give up 125 yards per on the ground, the NFL’s No. 21 rush defense. So Tampa Bay could keep it on the ground plenty as well.

I can't in good faith take a Sam Darnold team on the road against a Tom Brady one at home even though Brady has not looked great of late. I'm assuming there's a switch he can flip to clinch the South, rest next week and then perhaps go on a date with Gisele's sister out of spite (they are twins FYI). Carolina is without maybe its best cornerback in Jaycee Horn, who had surgery on Tuesday. Tampa Bay could be as healthy as it has been in weeks as no player has officially been ruled out as of this writing. Ideally, the Bucs trout out some walking wounded if necessary and then play the JV next week in Atlanta. If you can bet the Falcons lookahead line, I'd do it. Caesars isn't offering it but others are.

The Buccaneers have been untrustworthy from a spread standpoint for virtually the entire season. The offense has lacked consistency, which has led to more losses and tight wins. Nine of their 15 games have been decided by one score. In Week 7, Tampa Bay suffered a 21-3 loss at Carolina, but look for it to finally hit that gear it needs to in a game it must have. Take the Buccaneers.

Establishing the Bucs as favorites by more than a field goal is a case of wishful thinking that their offense will finally show some life from the opening kick. Really? In the season's penultimate week? Tampa Bay ranks 27th in scoring, only .2 ppg from 29th. Its rushing game is a can't-be-any-worse 32nd, well behind the next highest. Defenses are capitalizing by taking away mid-range and deep passes, knowing Tom Brady will not run it out of the pocket. Their habit of awakening late in games for a winning score is dancing with the devil. Carolina is 3-1 outright since shifting to Sam Darnold at QB and has committed one turnover -- 11 fewer than the Bucs in the same span.

The Panthers offense is coming off its best game of the season, thanks to rolling up 320 rush yards against the Lions. I'm not sure how repeatable that success is as a big chunk of that was gained via massive holes in the Detroit front that shouldn't be there vs. Tampa Bay. Yet this line steamed down to 3 with the Buccaneers offense again looking sluggish before rallying for a comeback win against the Cardinals. I don't think the Bucs will magically fix everything, but I do like their potential in this matchup with Jaycee Horn sidelined for Carolina. I'll feel better if both Bucs tackles are available, but both managed to log a limited practice on Wednesday, so I expect they'll play.

The Buccaneers average 17.7 points and haven’t covered any of their last five games. Yes, Panthers CB Jaycee Horn will miss this game, but he also was out for the earlier meeting, a 21-3 Carolina win. Sam Darnold is playing better than anyone envisioned and the Panthers’ ground game should keep clicking versus a Tampa Bay run defense that has slipped a few notches from last season. Look for Carolina’s front four to once again disrupt Tom Brady, who is 45 and playing behind a beat-up offensive line. Grab the field goal.