I'll admit that on props I do check out some other sites to see what they think unless I just have a strong feeling on my own due to weather, injury, etc. (still so PO'd on Mac Jones and that volleyball TD or an easy winner) Nearly every site has Watson over this number. I disagree. He hasn't had 50 yards in three of the past four and now that Green Bay's WR group is healthy isn't the clear-cut guy.

It's almost Packers weather here in south Florida! Freaking cold man. Iguanas are falling out of trees left and right. Miami is just a different team at home, especially on defense. Short week for Green Bay and I hardly think any issues were solved in Monday's win over the sorry Rams. Maybe the Pack hang within 3 but you know me, I'm not gonna worry about the spread.

Look for the Packers to make things a little more interesting with their slim postseason chances. Their offense still might not look like it has in previous years, but their defense has limited opponents to 20 points or fewer in three of four weeks. Miami’s three straight losses all came on the road, but that puts that pressure on their 5-1 home record Sunday. Play the points with the Packers.

The Packers offense appears to be hitting its stride now that all the receivers are healthy. But the Packers still have topped 250 passing yards just once in a game all year (Week 9 in a game they lost 15-9 in Detroit), and the Dolphins have allowed more than 20 points at home just once all year as well. The Dolphins are struggling after dropping three straight, but all came on the road and they nearly upset Buffalo last week. They showed in that game that they're willing to run the ball, and the Packers struggle on that front, but I also expect Dolphins WRs to have plenty of room to operate in the passing game. At four or more, I'm worried about a backdoor cover from the Packers, but at this number I like the Dolphins.

The Dolphins' defense has been on the field for over 250 plays the past three games, all losses, and now Miami hosts the run-heavy Packers. Green Bay retains an outside shot at the playoffs. Running back A.J. Dillon (4 TDs in the past three games) has cleared concussion protocol; he'll wear down this Miami defense. Green Bay has scored 109 points over its past four games, with Christian Watson scoring eight touchdowns. Take the points as Aaron Rodgers and co. keep this one competitive at a minimum.