The Vikings and Giants have a combined 19 wins, and 18 of them were decided by one score. The one that wasn't happened back in Week 1. With that setup, why wouldn't you take the team getting four points? The Vikings' biggest weakness is pass defense, something that the Giants wouldn't seem to be set up to take advantage of ... but you could've said the same thing about the Colts a week ago. Brian Daboll is likely to figure out ways to take advantage, and this game is likely to be another close one. Grab the points.

The Giants' wide receiver corps has gone through a lot of shakeup this year due to injuries, trades and general ineffectiveness, but James has emerged as a key piece of the attack over the last month, starting three of the past four games. He's had at least four catches and five targets in each of his four starts as well as in Week 1 when he played 70% of the snaps as well. This should be a matchup where the Giants pass a lot more than usual, so I think five targets is the floor for James, who has caught 80.8% of his targets this year. Do the math and it seems pretty likely he'll be able to get to at least four receptions in this game.

The Giants' lackluster passing attack hasn't done much over the last four weeks, but all those games came against the NFC East, which is stocked with top-tier defenses. In the game before that stretch, Jones threw for 341 yards against the Lions, and now he faces one of two defenses who have allowed more passing yards to QBs this season than Detroit. Throw out the weird Colts game where Indianapolis was up 33 at halftime and Minnesota allowed more than 300 net passing yards in each of its previous five games. Even though passing isn't the strength of the Giants, head coach Brian Daboll knows how to attack a weakness, so expect a big day from Jones through the air.

Slayton was held in check by the Commanders last week, finishing with only 23 yards on five receptions. On the bright side, he was targeted seven times, marking the seventh time over the last 10 games that he has received at least six targets. In those seven games, he had at least 58 receiving yards six times. The Vikings have allowed the second-most passing yards per game in the league, setting up Slayton with a great opportunity to bounce back in a big way.

The Giants come off a huge win at Washington after going 0-3-1 straight-up in their previous four games. The Vikings come off the greatest comeback in NFL history with a 39-36 overtime win against the Colts. The Vikings have the NFL’s worst defense, allowing 399 ypg and average a 25-24 score. I like the Giants to score often and possibly win outright. Take the points.

Slayton has quietly had a breakout season for the Giants and has eclipsed this total in seven of eleven appearances this season. While he is coming off two quiet performances against the Eagles and the Commanders this is a much more favorable matchup against the Vikings. Minnesota is 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback and they have surrendered the second most yards to opposing WRs this season. The Vikings have also bled a ton of production to opposing number one WRs as well, they are currently 26th in DVOA to opposing WR1s. With so many games being potentially impacted by inclement weather this week, it's nice to have a game inside of a dome as well. I'd play this up to 51.5.

Here's a matchup of two teams the market has wanted to fade for much of the second half of the season after both built up records unreflective of their overall quality. The Giants have struggled mightily over the last month but have played nothing but NFC East teams during that stretch, and they're 7-2 straight up outside the division. The Vikings also got their doors blown off by the Eagles and Cowboys in two of their three losses, and the Minnesota pass defense is a problem against any competent passing attack. The Giants haven't done a lot of passing this season but have an offensive mastermind in Brian Daboll who should exploit Minnesota's weakness. Giants keep this one close.