The hook definitely may matter. The Bucs have looked terrible on offense of late but Cincinnati is without two key defenders in top pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson and cornerback Mike Hilton. No. 1 tight end Hayden Hurst is also out. For what it's worth, Tom Brady is 10-1 ATS in his career as a home dog -- granted, those were mostly when Brady was in his prime. Tampa Bay's secondary gets a huge boost with cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting (quadriceps) and safeties Mike Edwards (hamstring) and Antoine Winfield Jr. (ankle) all back after missing the past two games.

There seems to be a lack of understanding that the Buccaneers are a legitimately bad football team this season. The Bengals are most certainly not. In fact, Cincinnati is a top five DVOA offense and top 10 DVOA defense. The Bengals are also the best ATS team in the NFL (10-3) going up against the worst in the Bucs (3-9-1). Joe Burrow is completing passes at a nearly 70% clip, and he’s going to have his full complement of receivers against a Tampa Bay team that struggles to move the ball behind a stationary quarterback in Tom Brady who has only defeated two quality opponents this season. The hope was that this would hit a field goal (-3) before kickoff, but there’s still value getting this under -4.

One of the toughest spots in the NFL is building off of a showcase victory. The Cincinnati Bengals did so last week after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs the week prior. Now they have to go on the road against a desperate Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. There will be moments when it looks like the Bucs will end the Bengals five-game winning streak, but look for the Bengals to continue to showcase themselves as a legit contender in the end. Grab Cincinnati.

Some folks never learn. Tampa Bay has covered once in its last 11 games yet is getting barely a field goal against a white-hot foe that happens to own the league's shiniest ATS record (10-3). Further, the teams' health trends are heading in opposite directions. The Bucs will sit three key defenders, notably DT Vita Vea. The Bengals expect recently ailing WRs Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins back to join star Ja'Marr Chase, who is coming off a 10-catch, 119-yard gem. The Bucs rank last in league rushing. That puts pressure on Tom Brady, who has been forced to rely excessively on short passes. Not that Cincy QB Joe Burrow needs help, but he can hand off much of the day against a shaky rush defense.

The Bucs are a miracle rally against the Saints from losing three straight, and they'll be facing the hottest team in the league here with the Bengals rolling up five straight wins. That alone makes me want to lean to the Bucs as the market could be inflating the hot team and underselling the cold team, but my power ratings have this line at Bengals -5 (and that's with a probably inflated home-field advantage for the Bucs), so I think there's still some belief the Bucs have a hidden gear they've yet to hit. If they get some of their key injured players back this week, maybe that will help. But with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd trending toward playing for Cincy, I have to think the Bengals are the right side here.