There will likely be a bit of a bounce back from Deshaun Watson in this game, but it won't be enough against a Bengals team rolling down the stretch of the season -- just as it did last year. Joe Burrow has scored 10 total touchdowns across his last four games -- all wins -- and should be out for revenge against a Browns team that blew the Bengals out (led 25-0 at one point) earlier this season. Cleveland's had Cincinnati's number the same way Cincy has been a thorn in Kansas City's side recently. That just bit me last week. But with D.J. Reader suited up this time, plus a full complement of playmakers (Joe Mixon, JaMarr Chase both healthy), this should be a spot where the Bengals end their losing streak in the series. I was prepared to take this at 5.5, so I'm definitely jumping at 4.

Joe Burrow is a winter wonder man. As the Bengals QB, he has lost one of 11 games in sub-50 temperatures, which fits the forecast today, and 9-2 ATS. This season, Cincinnati is 9-3 ATS in all conditions the season, and Burrows has been as good as any QB since a shaky 0-2 start. Counterpart Deshaun Watson was understandably rusty last Sunday while ending a lengthy hiatus but might remain far from his old self for awhile. The Bengals have shored up their O-line that allowed multiple sacks to the Browns in the last meeting.

Sorry, I just don't like the 5.5-point spread but I do think the Bengals get payback for being waxed on and waxed off Halloween night in Cleveland. Ja'Marr Chase was injured then. Now Cincinnati is rolling and Chase is back. Joe Mixon also will return from a two-game absence. Deshaun Watson looked horribly rusty last week in Houston in his debut and might not have top WR Amari Cooper. He injured his hip on Thursday and didn't practice Friday. That scenario is never a good sign. Joe Burrow is WAY overdue to beat the Browns -- I mean, Joe Cool owns Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs so what the heck is going on here?

The Browns have beaten the Bengals five straight times, with Joe Burrow on the field the past four. But this is the spot where the streak should end. Burrow has his top weapon back while Cleveland's Deshaun Watson is still rusty after his long layoff. In the Browns' win at Houston, Watson graded out as the NFL's worst QB for Week 13. Cincy just held Patrick Mahomes to 223 passing yards, and its run defense has stiffened with 6-3, 335-pound defensive tackle D.J. Reader back. No team is playing better right now than the Bengals, and this is a massive revenge spot. Lay the points.

The Browns absolutely dominated the Bengals in Cleveland at the end of October, but they're facing a much different team now. D.J. Reader is back, and he makes a huge difference to both the run and pass defense, with the Chiefs managing just 211 yards through the air. And the Cincy offensive line is finally gelling, with Joe Burrow getting sacked five times in his last four games after Cleveland got him for five sacks alone in Week 8. Deshaun Watson goes back on the road to face a Super Bowl contender with no guarantee things will click for him after last week's clunker of a performance. With the Cleveland defense allowing 30-points five times this year, the Bengals can run away with the win.