ANALYSIS: NFL teams are 17-5 ATS the week before their bye this season, and Carolina's bye arrives next week. I'm expecting a strong effort from the home team, which has covered four of its last five. Sam Darnold can't be a downgrade from Baker Mayfield and might provide a short-term lift. Bruising Panthers running back D'Onta Foreman should have a bounceback day versus Denver's mediocre run defense (4.67 yards per carry allowed). The Broncos have lost six of seven and are 0-4 on the road this season (they did beat Jacksonville in London). Two weeks ago, Denver traveled to Nashville and lost a heartbreaker to the Titans. Then the Broncos returned home and lost in even more painful fashion to the Raiders. Now they travel east again; motivation could be an issue with the season already lost. Play the home dog.