I have truly no interest in this game personally, but if I can't get pick'ems right then what am I even doing here? Russell Wilson is clearly not what he was but still way better than Sam Darnold (I think). Denver's defense is also better. I don't think Larry's bye statistic -- while interesting -- matters in this case with an interim coach and clearly a tanking team.

NFL teams are 17-5 ATS the week before their bye this season, and Carolina's bye arrives next week. I'm expecting a strong effort from the home team, which has covered four of its last five. Sam Darnold can't be a downgrade from Baker Mayfield and might provide a short-term lift. Bruising Panthers running back D'Onta Foreman should have a bounceback day versus Denver's mediocre run defense (4.67 yards per carry allowed). The Broncos have lost six of seven and are 0-4 on the road this season (they did beat Jacksonville in London). Two weeks ago, Denver traveled to Nashville and lost a heartbreaker to the Titans. Then the Broncos returned home and lost in even more painful fashion to the Raiders. Now they travel east again; motivation could be an issue with the season already lost. Play the home dog.

Should the team that's scored the fewest points in the NFL be favored on the road? The Broncos have put up more than 17 points just twice all season, and they'll be missing three of their top six pass-catchers in 2022 (Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler and the recently cut Melvin Gordon). Sam Darnold isn't a great QB, but he's likely an upgrade -- with the added bonus that he actually throws to Carolina's most talented offensive player, D.J. Moore. The Panthers haven't been consistent on defense, but they can be good -- they've held opponents under 20 points in their last two games, and five times so far this season. I think they make it six and get the win. Grab the point.

Carolina's offense cannot get much worse, can it? Well, maybe. The Panthers will throw out their third QB this season. Sam Darnold last took a snap a year ago, during which he went 4-7 straight-up as a starter. Denver's defense ranks third for yards and points (17.1 ppg) allowed, so it is almost unfathomable that Carolina will get out of the teens in scoring. If QB Russell Wilson can just get the Broncos to 20 points against the No. 22-ranked defense, that should secure a cover.