We did well last week picking the Patriots and fading the Vikings, and now here we are with those teams meeting and a significant full-point line change coming due to perception of these teams. Minnesota is nowhere near as good as its record indicates, but what it possesses is an offense capable of moving down the field. New England has largely made its bones feasting on inept units. The Vikings have the firepower -- and a quarterback with a live arm -- in a home spot. Fading Kirk Cousins in primetime has been profitable, but I just don't see how the Pats consistently put points on the board given their offensive issues. This is another worthy half-unit wager that could go a full unit should the odds fall to -110 before kickoff.

I think oddsmakers are slightly overreacting to the Vikings being spanked at home on Sunday. Do I think they are as good as their record? Not really, but who have the Patriots beaten? Name me one New England skill position player who starts for Minnesota. Plus the Pats are banged up on the offensive line.

I know it is cliche to say that you don't want to trust Kirk Cousins in a big game spot, and all of the matchups in this game against the Patriots tend to favor Minnesota, BUT, you don't want to trust Kirk Cousins in this spot. Minnesota will be without their star left tackle in Christian Darrisaw, and Patriots coach Bill Belichick will ensure that the NFL's sack leader Matt Judon will be aligned primarily on that side. Offensively speaking, expect the Patriots to have success running the football as the Cowboys did against this defense. So, to me, this is a bad matchup for the Vikings all around.

Both offenses are coming off a stinker, though the Pats probably deserved to have more than three points before their punt-return TD to win the game. But their defenses has been elite in recent weeks while facing Zach Wilson and Sam Ehlinger, and the Vikings represent a big step up for the unit. The Patriots offense is dealing with an injury to their starting center, not a great development when hitting the road in a loud environment in a primetime spot. The Vikings typically have a strong home-field edge despite last week's result, and I expect them to be focused here after getting the doors blown off last week. I think this line should be closer to Vikings -6, but action might push it the other way, so wait to see if you can get -2.5.