While not overly fond of double-digit road favorites, the Bills set up nicely in this spot given their recent familiarity with Ford Field and the return to health of starting cornerbacks Kaiir Elam and Tre'Davious White. Elam no longer carries an injury designation, and White is active for the first time after a torn ACL one year ago. That should help slow down a solid Lions offense, which has feasted on short fields by taking advantage of turnovers the last three weeks (+7). Josh Allen has thrown as many bad picks as any quarterback in the league, but he seemed to figure things out last week. Buffalo's wideouts should have a field day on this Detroit defense. I'd prefer to live bet and see if we can get below a touchdown as the Bills generally start slow, but I gotta have action on Thanksgiving, so we'll do a half unit here on the better team with more at stake getting key defensive reinforcements back even if this is a game from which I'd normally stay away.

As a former Michigander, I have been to a couple of Lions games on Thanksgiving. Usually the best crowd of the year. My point being is while sometimes home-field advantage is overrated, I think it matters today. Detroit is playing easily the best it has under Dan Campbell led by unlikely NFL rushing TD leader Jamaal Williams. I frankly wouldn't be shocked if the Lions win this game outright. Not predicting that but will take the points.

Both teams do a really good job of putting the ball in the paint. The Lions are on a three game winning streak, and seems to have found its rhythm on offense, playing with much more balance. We know that Buffalo can score the ball and are getting healthier by the week on defense. I expect a back and forth affair, especially when you combine the fact that the Lions are playing some of their best ball of the season, makes this point spread a bit too much for me.

Detroit has dropped five consecutive Turkey Day games outright, but the Lions' season is too often in ruins by this week. Not so now, with Detroit riding a three-game straight-up streak that will ignite the crowd. Props to the Bills for beating Cleveland in this same stadium, but the back-and-forth travel and short week could take its toll. Nor will Buffalo have nearly as many supporters as it drew against the Browns. The Lions have put up 25.67 ppg during the run while allowing 19. The impressive differential places them in position to take this matchup down to the wire.

The Lions are on a three-game winning streak despite getting severely outgained in yardage in each game thanks to securing key turnovers, even against teams like the Giants that know how to protect the ball. The Bills surprisingly have the most turnovers per game in the league, though they finally had a clean game against Cleveland. The Bills are in a brutal travel spot going back and forth to Detroit for this early Thursday start, and they could be sluggish out the gate. The Lions are strong enough in the trenches to keep this one from getting out of hand, especially if they can continue to generate turnovers against a turnover-prone offense.