Arizona's scratch of QB Kyler Murray has sent the spread rocketing to +10, which offers value on the home side. Colt McCoy, a cut above most backups, was sharp last Sunday against the Rams as 'Zona deployed an effective short passing approach. The Cardinals tend to overachieve against their NFC West brethren, having covered in all but one of the last eight meetings as underdogs. Exuberance over the 49ers since they acquired RB Christian McCaffrey seems a bit extreme.

Kyler Murray is not expected to play but I'm honestly not sure that matters at this spread -- Colt McCoy is generally decent. DeAndre Hopkins should go, so I think the Cards can hang within a TD in Mexico.

Kyler Murray is not expect to play here, which caused this line to jump two points. But we said last week that Colt McCoy's success last year combined with his ability to operate within the offense might not make him a downgrade at QB despite the wide talent gap between the two players, then Arizona went out and took care of business in L.A. McCoy won in San Francisco last year 31-17 without DeAndre Hopkins, but the top receiver should be able to go in Mexico City. I had the 49ers at 6.5 points better in my power ratings heading into the week, and if there truly is no dropoff to McCoy playing in a better-run offense, then we're getting a lot of value here.

The Cardinals swept both games against the 49ers last season and are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine vs. SF. I like the way Arizona matches up against the 49ers so the way I see it is I get a spread indicating Colt McCoy is most likely to start, and if he does, I’m fine with it. I saw him win two games last season in a similar fashion as last week. But then I’ll also be good if Kyler Murray is able to play and I’ll still have this large spread in my back pocket. Murray would be more focused after watching the Cardinals' best performance with someone else QB-ing his team. Might Murray try the quick releases, holding the ball for less than 2.3 seconds? Throw it quickly and then you don’t have to run around.

The Niners have the No. 1 total defense in the NFL and likely will be facing a Cardinals team without starting QB Kyler Murray and for sure top tight end Zach Ertz, who is done for the season. We won't likely know on Murray for sure until later this week, but early reports are it probably will be Colt McCoy again. Offensively, San Francisco totaled just 17 points in both games last year vs. Arizona. Note this game is at altitude in Mexico City. Let's get this while it's still above 42.

The 49ers didn't cover Sunday night versus the Chargers, but San Fran completely dominated the stat sheet in the 22-16 win. The Niners' red-zone inefficiency plus a penalty disparity contributed to the relatively small margin of victory. But now Kyle Shanahan's team returns to NFC West play, where it has covered five straight. I'm expecting Arizona to hold out Kyler Murray (hamstring) at least one more week, because Colt McCoy played so well in the 27-17 win over the Rams. But McCoy won't have any running game to lean on -- San Fran allows a league-low 3.4 yards per carry -- and this time he'll have to keep up with an elite offense that's poised to erupt. Lay the points.