I'll be honest in that I don't have a huge feel for this game. I just am not on the Geno Smith bandwagon (deservedly the Comeback Player of the Year favorite), although former Sparty Kenneth Walker is a stud. Whatever, I'm gonna watch it so I have to care otherwise. Tom Brady is unbeaten in Germany games. Course, that's 0-0 but still. I guess Geno is too. At 3.5, I would take the points.

Based on both performance level and records, you'd think Seattle might deserve the status as a short favorite Sunday. But instead that honor belongs to a 4-5 Bucs club that barely escaped a four-game losing streak with a last-minute TD drive against the Rams last week. Tom Brady appeared exhausted and relieved, promising it was just the start of things to come. Despite all of its flaws and inconsistency, look for Tampa Bay to make it two straight against an overachieving Seattle club that is due for regression.

Our SportslineAI model has Seattle winning this game by 2 points. But due to the unpredictability of travel Seattle +2.5 is the play. I had Seattle ML against the Cardinals last week and said if Ken Walker III had a great game Seattle would win. Tampa Bay has the 23rd ranked rushing defense setting up Walker to be key again. Additionally, Tampa Bay’s offense last week only put up 16 points and have averaged 15 points in the last 4 games. If you still need convincing, Seattle’s last four games: 4 wins by an average of 12 points. And 3 of those games Seattle was an underdog.

Whether you think this line is right or not likely comes down to how much stock you put in expectations vs. results. I had the Bucs as a +4.5 team in my power ratings to begin the year and have steadily moved them down to average. I had the Seahawks as a -6 team to start the year and have steadily moved them up to average. This line would've been Bucs -10 on preseason perception, so if you think a Bucs turnaround is in the cards, that's your side. I'll roll with the better coached team with maybe the better QB, definitely better run game, and a defense that has played its best this year over the last two weeks.