The Vikings might be the worst 7-1 team in history, and with it looking like Josh Allen will suit up Sunday, the Bills are a good value here after initially sitting as 9-point favorites in this game. Look for Allen and this offense to get right after a rough go of it against the Jets last week. I would take Buffalo up to -6 with a half bet at -6.5. Even if Allen was to get dinged up, Case Keenum is an experienced backup who was 2-0 as a starter last season with the Browns.

It has been kinda fun watching this line all week with the Josh Allen situation. By every metric, the Vikings might be the worst 7-1 team in history. I don't think they are that good. Allen apparently will play so I think Buffalo will win by at least a TD -- but obviously there is the worry he might have to leave. I've torn a few things, just not my UCL so I have no idea. Take the chance.

There's a ton of implied value on Buffalo in this spot. If quarterback Josh Allen plays, then we're scalping about 4 points of value from the original line. If He doesn't, the offense is left in the hands of a capable backup in Case Keenum, who would likely love nothing more than to defeat the team that dumped him in favor of Kirk Cousins after he led the Vikings to the NFC title game. With that being the worst-case scenario, the number screams value on the Bills.

SportslineAI has this game as a pick’em when rounding the decimal scores. That is with the assumption that Josh Allen plays. Like Larry Hartstein said, for me, this is a calculated risk, even at +3.5 and Josh Allen playing our model thinks Minnesota has a 54% chance to cover. If Josh Allen doesn’t play then you get a great deal out of the line.

I'm taking a calculated risk here, assuming Josh Allen (elbow) doesn't play. But even if he does, the Vikings would be live as underdogs owing to their tremendous offensive weapons. Minnesota has won six straight. In the last couple weeks, we've seen that Buffalo is vulnerable to a strong run game. That sets up well for Dalvin Cook. He was stymied by Washington's superior rush defense, but is averaging 4.6 yards per carry with five touchdowns. Take the points.