There's value on the Dolphins now that the troublesome hook has been removed off the key number. This spread suggests the game would be a pick'em on a neutral field and that is a tough sell. No doubt the Browns are formidable when they control the line of scrimmage with their physicality, and on paper this looks like a favorable matchup against a finesse Miami team. But the Dolphins' edge in firepower will be a difficult gap to close, especially if they build an early lead.

The Browns are 3-5, but here’s the thing: Of those five losses, only one came by more than three points. And they’re getting 3.5 here. It sounds crazy, but Cleveland actually wasn’t that far from starting 7-1. On the other side, four of the Dolphins’ six wins came by four points or less. As great as Miami’s offense has been, they don’t blow teams out. With Denzel Ward returning to a Browns defense that’s improved the last few games and is well-rested off the bye, look for another close one here between teams that play a ton of close games. Grab the points.

If you buy this down to Fins -2.5, it's only -150 at DK so that's probably wiser than paying -190 on the moneyline but obviously don't have that option here. Miami hasn't lost yet with Tua under center. He's the first QB in Dolphins history with 300+ pass yards, 3+ pass TD & 0 INT in consecutive games. Can't believe Dan Marino didn't do that. Or Jay Fiedler. As Larry mentioned, the Fins have been much better defensively at home. Cleveland has lost 7 straight games following a win (longest active NFL streak). It's still pretty hot and humid down here -- you know, when we don't get weekly hurricanes -- so that may wear down the visitors.

Miami is 6-0 this season when Tua Tagovailoa finishes a game, 13-1 in the last 14. He leads the NFL in passer rating (115.9) and yards per attempt (9.2) this year. Even with corner Denzel Ward returning for the Browns following their bye, I don't see Cleveland slowing down Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Mike McDaniel's innovative run game. The Dolphins' defense is much stronger at home, allowing 15 points per game. Look for Tagovailoa to improve to 11-4 ATS at home in his career.

The Dolphins have played nine straight games without any rest. Their defense could be tiring after chasing Justin Fields all over the field last week. The Browns have the better offensive line (No. 7 vs. No. 22) and special teams (No. 22 vs. No. 32). Cleveland boasts a net yards per play of +0.22, while the Dolphins are +0.24 this season. Miami is ranked No. 26 in sack rate, while Cleveland ranks No. 14. The Browns are ranked No. 16 in third-down defense, while Miami is ranked No. 27. Cleveland gets stud cornerback Denzel Ward back. I like the Browns with two weeks to prepare in this spot!

The Dolphins return home after back-to-back close road wins against the NFC North, and even if they didn't win by big margins, it's an impressive feat for a team that typically plays much better at home. Miami sports the top passing offense in the league by yards per play, and I have more faith this team will be able to handle Cleveland's pass rush than Cincinnati did. The Dolphins defense was just gashed by the run, but that was largely QB related, which isn't an issue with Jacoby Brissett. The Dolphins can play from ahead with their elite pass game, putting pressure on Brissett to keep up while dealing with the upgraded Miami pass rush. I think this line should be Miami -7 with the Dolphins' home-field advantage.