The Bengals hold a clear edge in most categories entering Monday night, especially in the passing game. Where the Browns have an advantage is their strong running attack behind Nick Chubb, but Cincinnati is top 10 in rushing defense DVOA. If the reigning AFC champions get up a couple scores, Cleveland will have no choice but to start throwing, which negates Chubb and exposes Jacoby Brissett to a defense that has done a superb job limiting big plays this season. Not having Ja'Marr Chase is rough for the Bengals, but there are enough options in the passing game for Joe Burrow. Take this at -3 or lower, but the hook makes it a no-play.

These two teams are going in different directions as the Bengals have won two straight, and the Browns have lost their last four after a 2-1 start. The Bengals will be without WR Ja'Marr Chase for a few weeks, but QB Joe Burrow has endless receiving outlets. The Bengals have found their groove (5-0 against-the-spread in their last five) as they did late last season. They also have covered eight of their last nine on the road and are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Cleveland. Bengals to win.

No Ja'Marr Chase of course for the Bengals, but the Browns are in quite a bit worse shape injury-wise with two offensive linemen, perhaps their three top cornerbacks, linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and tight end David Njoku all potentially sitting. And, I mean, Joe Burrow > Jacoby Brissett even without Chase.

Just as the Bengals finally deployed their full complement of pass-catchers last Sunday, which enabled Joe Burrow to throw for an astonishing 459 yards, down goes the best one of all. Ja’Marr Chase, scorer of six TDs this season and the target of 27 percent of Burrow’s attempts, is out for awhile. That likely means fewer aerials and more handoffs, mostly to Joe Mixon. The Browns’ loss is not as grave but still impactful: TE David Njoku, team co-leader in catches, has been sidelined. The total already has dipped from 47.

These games tend to be close, with the amount of talent on both sides, but also because of the familiarity, with it being a division game. There is a contrast in styles, but each team has the ability to strike with the big play in different ways. The Browns have an explosive run game, while the Bengals are dynamic through the air. I can see this one being a back-and-forth affair, with the score being somewhere along the lines of 28-24 or 35-30, both of which would help you cover and start focusing on the total. Pick: Lay the points with the Bengals Lean: Over

The Bengals look back in form after a shaky start to the season, though their offensive explosion last week came against the team with the league's worst sack rate. The Cincinnati offensive line is going to face a tougher test this week with the Browns' edge duo of Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney, who's now back in action and helped limit the Ravens to just 254 yards of offense last week. Cincinnati's defense has also been much weaker against the run than the pass, which fits what the Browns offense wants to do. Bengals stock is incredibly high right now coming off wins in four of their last five games, while everyone is selling the Browns after four straight losses. With this line tipping to 3.5, I think the value is on Cleveland now.