Five games into the season, it's time to start believing what our eyes are telling us: Russell Wilson has regressed, the Broncos offense is no-good, and Nathaniel Hackett may be out of his depth. On the other side, the homestanding Chargers rank 12th in passing defense, so even if Wilson does find something, he'll have to succeed against a unit that held Patrick Mahomes to a season-low 235 yards last month. Los Angeles will be without Keenan Allen again, but it has enough weapons to find some holes in Denver's exceptional defense as the game wears on. Justin Herbert is getting healthier, and Austin Ekeler (five touchdowns) has found his footing the last two weeks in a pair of road wins. The line has come down enough to put us in a good spot.

This is an opportunity for the Denver Broncos to get to .500 and take advantage of the easiest portion of their schedule. Following Monday, the Broncos will face the Jets, Jaguars, have a bye week then face the Titans. I expect the Broncos to hang around in this game as the Chargers are coming off consecutive road games in Houston and Cleveland. Take the Broncos as their prime-time woes subside, at least from an ATS standpoint.

Do I think the Chargers win? Yep. Cover the number? No clue. Russ just hasn't been cooking with his new team. FiveThirtyEight likes the Bolts by 4. The SL Model by 5. So let's just take the spread out of play shall we?

The Chargers dealt with a rash of injuries in the first few weeks, but Justin Herbert has looked good the last two games, Jamaree Salyer has done a fine job filling in at left tackle, and Keenan Allen is expected to return for this game. Now it's the Broncos struck by injury, with Russell Wilson playing through a partially torn lat, Denver also losing its left tackle and key pass rusher, and other key players (Javonte Williams, Ronald Darby) sidelined. This will be the toughest test yet for a Denver defense that has played well against the pass but is shorthanded due to injury, and if the Broncos fall behind, I can't trust Wilson to rally for the backdoor cover. With L.A. finding its running game last week, I think they can win this by at least a TD.

The Broncos have been held to 16 points or fewer in four of their five games this year, though goal-line fumbles are to blame for Week 1. And a Russell Wilson partially torn lat is apparently to blame for their recent struggles. He's not going to be 100% anytime soon, and with left tackle Garett Bolles joining Javonte Williams as out for the year, I don't see how Denver scores enough points to get this one over, considering they can't rely on plus coaching. The Denver defense has allowed just five TDs in five games, so even with Justin Herbert looking fine, this seems destined for yet another primetime Under. Take it before it gets to 45.