I was sitting here waiting for Caesars to catch up to the other books at Steelers +10 and now we got it. The Bucs offense has not been clicking, so Kenny Pickett in his home debut should be able to stay within a touchdown. Honestly, an upset wouldn't shock me here.

With the Steelers’ secondary wiped out by injuries — safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and the top three corners are scratches — the temptation is to go Bucs on the spread. But the line has skied to nearly 10, easily the highest this century for a Pittsburgh home game, making the total a preferred play. Tom Brady should slice up the defense now that his receiver corps is almost back in full, while his counterpart, rookie Kenny Pickett, completed 34 passes in comeback mode last Sunday and flushed out the jitters as a new starter.

The Steelers looked like the worst team in the league in the loss to the Bills, and this line only makes sense if they truly are the worst team in the league. Because the Bucs haven't been playing that well this season, particularly on offense. I still have them as four points better than average, but that only gets this line to Bucs -6 for me with Pittsburgh's quality home-field advantage. Despite the score in a road game against the best team in the league, I thought Kenny Pickett looked like an upgrade from Mitchell Trubisky, and he could easily backdoor cover here after the Bucs allowed the Falcons to do just that in Tampa last week.