The Chiefs are the play in what should likely be a pick ‘em at Arrowhead – as if Kansas City needed additional motivation being listed as an underdog at home to Buffalo. Yes, the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill, but Travis Kelce reminded last week that he’s a significant mismatch for opposing defenses, and Patrick Mahomes seems to be developing a rapport with Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The Bills are humming offensively under Josh Allen, but the defense’s preference to sit back in coverage may cost it against Homes given his creativity and game-breaking ability with his legs. This line is a tick away from hitting a full +3, so wait as late as you can until kickoff to try and get the field goal.

Josh Allen went wild against the Chiefs last season, accounting for eight touchdowns and no interceptions while amassing 771 yards from scrimmage. He should have another huge day Sunday, Chiefs corner Rashad Fenton (hamstring) and pass rusher Frank Clark (illness) missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, and if either misses this game it would only enhance Buffalo's chances at an offensive explosion. This is the kind of game in which Tyreek Hill's absence will be felt. He went off for 11 catches, 150 yards and a touchdown in the Chiefs' 42-36 playoff win over Buffalo. KC, a bit fortunate to be 4-1, will find it harder to score against this improved Bills' defense. Lay the small number with the NFL's top team.

This number is a bit inflated. Actually, it’s a lot inflated. The number is saying that the Chiefs home field doesn't give a home edge, which is worth two points. It's saying the Bills are rated five points higher than Kansas City at home. And if Buffalo had a healthy secondary, are we going to add another 1.5 points to the number? The Bills' secondary hasn’t been exposed yet, but Patrick Mahomes is great at exposing weaknesses. The Chiefs probably should be -1 for this game, so I took the points as fast as I could. Last thing, Kansas City is 7-0-1 against the spread the eight times Mahomes has been an underdog. Take the Chiefs to cover.

The Bills are fresh off destroying the Steelers, a result that must have surprised oddsmakers. Why else would this line move two points from the lookahead of pick 'em when the Chiefs haven't played yet? I think the Bills could very well be the best team in the league, but the Chiefs could argue for the title as well. Provided Patrick Mahomes isn't injured in Monday's game against the Raiders, I can't see why the Chiefs should be underdogs at home to anybody, unless we've wiped the last few weeks from our memories and are back to thinking the Bills are the '07 Patriots. I won't have them two points better than the Chiefs in my power ratings, which means Chiefs should be favored here.