The Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games, and they’ll be facing a rookie QB making his first NFL start on the road. It’s Kenny Pickett time for the Steelers, who have started the season 1-3 behind the 30th ranked offense and a defense without T.J. Watt. The Bills have a slew of injuries, notably the entire secondary, wide receiver and tight end Dawson Knox. But the biggest reason for siding with Pittsburgh is the point spread. This is a lot of points for an NFL game. I took the points with the Steelers.

I like Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett and consider him an upgrade. He brings unbridled enthusiasm, and his mobility should help move the chains. The Bills played a high-energy (90 offensive snaps) game in Miami and then another high-energy emotional come-from-behind victory against Baltimore. The Steelers have never been this large of an underdog, and you can be sure coach Mike Tomlin will use it as motivation. Pittsburgh's offensive line is ranked No. 13 by Football Outsiders, while Buffalo's is ranked No. 32. The Steelers are No. 9 in opponent passer rating (77). The Bills have their ultimate revenge game against the Chiefs next week. This line seems inflated. I like the road dog.

Rookie QB Kenny Pickett did not exactly dazzle in his mid-game NFL debut last Sunday, but a week of practice with the first unit will serve him well. Unseating Mitch Trubisky might be unfair to the veteran. The offensive doldrums were not entirely his fault. Yet Pickett exudes enthusiasm on the field, which might lift his teammates. coach Mike Tomlin has an envious record as an underdog, and the spots don’t get much bigger than a full two TDs.