The Lions give up an NFL-worst 5.6 yards per rush, and this week they'll be missing two important defensive linemen in Charles Harris (groin) and John Cominsky (hand). The Pats should dominate with their excellent offensive line and run game, making life easier for rookie starting QB Bailey Zappe. He posted a 107.4 rating at Green Bay last week. Historically, Jared Goff is much worse on the road. Sunday he'll be missing D'Andre Swift, and D.J. Chark, while Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) is questionable. Back New England at a juiced -3.

The Lions have been productive, covering three of their four games while getting all four games Over the total thanks to the NFL’s No. 1 offense (35.0 points per game) and No. 32 defense (35.3). But they're 1-3 straight-up. The Patriots' three losses came against Miami, Baltimore and Green Bay. The Lions' two key offensive players are likely to be out for this game. Patriots to cover.

With Mac Jones listed as doubtful, signs point to the Patriots relying on a rookie QB chosen mid-round as a projected backup. Bailey Zappe should feel blessed to make his first start against a dreadful defense, but it’s doubtful his offense can outscore the suddenly explosive Lions, whose average of 35.0 points per game paces the league. Even though it is 1-3 straight-up, Detroit is 3-1 against-the-spread. Not much separates these teams, so the three-point spot is suitable.

Mac Jones has been ruled doubtful for this game, putting Bailey Zappe in line to start. Yet the line didn't move with the news, making it clear oddsmakers hung Patriots -3 expecting Zappe under center. And I don't get it. I know the Lions have a bad defense and injury issues, and they'll be playing their first game outdoors this year, but how can you resist the opportunity to take points against a third-string rookie QB making his first career start? Even a bad Lions defense can load the box and force Zappe to beat them with his arm, and the Patriots defense isn't at the elite level where we can just count on the Lions' high-scoring offense completely crumbling.

I will say every model disagrees with me here. But I trust my (sadly paunchy) gut more than models sometimes. The Lions have been shockingly good offensively and shockingly bad defensively. So why do this? Well, they are going to be without D'Andre Swift and DJ Chark at a minimum. Maybe Amon-Ra St. Brown too. Does anyone really think Jared Goff is this good? The Pats are starting rookie Bailey Zappe at QB. Awesome name for an exotic dancer. Not sure about a quarterback. I would love to hear Dan Campbell on Hard Knocks make fun of that name. Zappe was great at Western Kentucky but pretty much every WKU QB puts up video game numbers and then stinks in the NFL. But, yes, I picked him up in my Fantasy dynasty league just in case.