Though the Broncos are a mediocre 15th in DVOA, the Colts are ranked last in the NFL in large part due to an offense that has struggled to find answers and now must compete against a top-10 defense without its own best player, Jonathan Taylor. Denver will also be without its leading rusher, though Russell Wilson flashed last week on the road and looks to finally be finding something of a groove with the passing offense. This is not a spot where I love the Broncos, but given the short week, altitude and personnel losses for the Colts on both sides of the ball, the home team is the right side at -3. Plus, we should see some progression towards the mean with their early season red zone issues. If the hook comes in, it’s probably best to stay away.

With two excellent defenses in this game facing offenses that still haven't found their cruising altitudes, you can expect a lot of stalled drives that lead to field goals, especially inside the red zone. While I expect both teams at some point within the game to find the end zone, it won't be at a high clip based off the fact that it is a short week and both are coming in a bit banged up, with Denver more so at RB and DE, with the Colts being at RB and also within the three levels of their defense. Expect a very low-scoring game in Denver.

With the Indianapolis Colts missing their superstar RB Jonathan Taylor for this game, it puts even more pressure on a Colts offense to be able to supplement the production and presence of one of the best backs in the game. Facing one of the better defenses in the NFL, the Colts will most definitely have their work cut out for them. Denver's offense isn't earth-shattering by any means, but they do face a Colts defense that is a bit banged up within their front seven. Three points isn't too much to ask from the Broncos.

Both teams are struggling and have injuries. The Broncos have two prominent starters sidelined and QB Russell Wilson is out of sync. The Colts have a minus-6 turnover ratio and RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) is out, but they’ve bailed on the running game in their last three games, leaving it up to QB Matt Ryan. Indianapolis is 1-2-1 and has stayed Under in all four of its contests this season and nine straight overall. These are two of the three lowest-scoring teams in the NFL. The Under is the top play.

QBs Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson have not yet acclimated to their new surroundings. Indy’s scoring average is a league-low 14.3, with Denver just two slots ahead at 16.5. Ryan has thrown as many interceptions (five) as touchdown passes. Wilson’s 91.1 passer rating ranks in the league’s bottom half. Both offenses will miss injured RBs, Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams. The Colts’ leader in rushing yards after Taylor is Ryan with 12.

Guess I will double up on this game -- already took Denver on the moneyline -- now that Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out. Of course, no Javonte Williams for the Broncos, who have been pretty lousy offensively regardless. Denver has had just one game this season where the combined score was more than 42 points. The Colts haven't had any.

The Colts reverted back to form after their surprise win over the Chiefs, but I was actually encouraged by what I saw from them in the second half of the game. Their defense shut down Tennessee after an abysmal first half, and Matt Ryan finally looked like the QB the Colts thought they were trading for. The Broncos had a great first half from Russell Wilson then forgot how to move the ball after the break. The Colts' excellent rush defense will put this game into Wilson's hands, and I don't trust him to deliver a decisive win. I expect an ugly game decided by a field goal and think this is nice value after the lookahead line was Broncos -2.5.

I don't think all that much of Denver right now and the Broncos have lost running back Javonte Williams for the season, but they have a very good 1B in Melvin Gordon. The Colts already have ruled out All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard and defensive lineman Tyquan Lewis after sustaining concussions in Sunday's loss to the Tennessee Titans. 2021 NFL rushing king Jonathan Taylor also seems likely to sit with an ankle (not serious but with the quick turnaround). This has started to tick up a bit at some books.