Perhaps no quarterback has more pressure on his shoulders to begin the NFL season than Marcus Mariota. After two seasons as a backup with the Raiders, he gets another chance with Atlanta, although rookie Desmond Ridder is waiting for his opportunity. Look for Mariota’s red-zone issues to plague the Falcons, who will get two or three field goals instead of touchdowns. The Saints will get the job done on the road against their NFC South rivals.

It seems public bettors are running to bet the Saints as if they can read the box score, but they might regret not giving Atlanta enough respect. It takes some nerve to lay nearly a touchdown on the road with a team that has so many variables: An erratic Jameis Winston leading the way, a new coach roaming the sidelines and plenty of new parts on both sides of the ball. The Falcons showed fight in sports like this last year and they should do it again Sunday.

Having a really weird stretch of football. Somewhat losing on the moneyline picks, which obviously I assume will win, yet winning on spread picks, which goes without explaining is 50/50. So take this with a grain of salt. I am pretty sure the Saints win at a terrible Atlanta team. Might the Falcons backdoor cover? Maybe. Taking it out of the equation.

The Saints are winning outright more than 70 percent of the time in my simulations, and they are covering 58 percent of the time. The New Orleans defense is projected to get almost three sacks and more than three takeaways. The Falcons failed to cover the spread in all seven of their games in Atlanta last season, including a 30-20 loss to the Saints in Week 18.

There's a statistic you should know for this week. Since 2014, NFL Divisional opponents playing in Week 1 have seen the underdog cover in 76% of those games. We have six of said games this weekend to start the season including this one...but go elsewhere for that underdog love. New Orleans has won four straight in Atlanta alone, in fact they haven't lost there since 2017. The Falcons at home last season? 0-7 ATS. That's not a typo. I'll take it one step further, the only home game Atlanta covered last season was in London against the Jets. The one thing the Falcons did right was avoid sacks however Matt Ryan had a lot to do with that and he's long gone. Marcus Mariota will take sacks...often...and unfortunately for him this Saints defensive front excels in just that. Jameis Winston will put up big numbers on this defense and not sure Mariota will be able to keep up.

New Orleans is loaded on both sides of the ball coming into this game. A healthy Jameis Winston at QB with a bevy of talented receiving options at his disposal, along with a two-headed monster at RB with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, the Saints should be able to put the ball in the paint often. Up front on the defensive line is where they will give the Falcons offense problems. Look for the Saints to win along the line of scrimmage, ultimately winning the game in a comfortable fashion.