The shine came off the Cardinals late last season, and anyone who has followed Kliff Kingsbury’s career knows it's madness to count on him managing a game well. The Chiefs have a lot of questions to answer, most notable among them whether the offense can remain explosive with Tyreek Hill staying warm in Miami. If this was a less-experienced team without a trustworthy coach, those questions would be more concerning; however, the belief in Andy Reid, his system and Patrick Mahomes is strong. Plus, Arizona is dealing with numerous significant absences entering this game. The line has ballooned to a surprising number -- if you can buy -6 (-115) you should certainly do so -- but the Chiefs’ defense will be the clear difference in this one.

I don't plan on picking NFL games this early in the week normally, but for some reason this spread has spiked to 6 points, so I'll have to take that (I don't think it's getting higher or I'd wait). Yes, the Chiefs are 4-0 in Week 1 games under Patrick Mahomes but they also had Tyreek Hill then. Kansas City has 17 outright wins without covering since 2018, most in the NFL. Arizona can hang within 3 or so if not win outright at home even without the suspended DeAndre Hopkins.

This line was Chiefs -3 for much of the summer, and you could've still gotten that number in mid-August. At this number, I love the Cardinals, a team that has started strong the last few years and has the offensive firepower to keep this game close even with DeAndre Hopkins suspended. And that's if the Chiefs offense, which is going through a ton of turnover at wide receiver, is firing on all cylinders in Week 1. At the summer line of 3, my lean was to the Chiefs, who I have as my No. 2 team in power ratings. But even with a small home-field advantage, you have to think the Cards are below average for this line to make sense, and I don't.

The Cardinals have some injury concerns for key players, including linebacker Markus Golden and tight end Zach Ertz. But both are expected to play and this is a value number for a Cardinals team that has historically come out strong under Kliff Kingsbury before sliding late. Last year, the Cardinals won their first even before tumbling to an 11-6 mark and they won five of their first seven two seasons ago. The Chiefs have a bunch of new pieces to break in on the offensive side and, although they will eventually produce, the first few weeks could be a struggle as they adjust to life without gamebreaker Tyreek Hill. Take the points.