If the playoffs had not been extended, the Chiefs would be resting up on a bye while the Steelers' season would've already been over. Instead, we have a rematch of a 36-10 drubbing from last month, a game in which Kansas City was short-handed yet still absolutely dominated Pittsburgh. What I can't figure out is how to give the Steelers an edge here. The Chiefs are better on both sides of the ball, and the coaching matchup is at least a wash. In the wild card round, double-digit home favorites are 5-0 ATS since 2003, covering those spreads by nearly a touchdown on average. Unless Kansas City takes its foot off the gas late or completely fails to block T.J. Watt, I don't know how Pittsburgh stays within two touchdowns. A teaser with the Bucs (-7 to -1) is interesting if this spread is too high for you.

Pittsburgh scratched and clawed its way through the backend of the season and into the playoffs. TJ Watt will give the Steelers a chance defensively, but it's the Steelers offense that worries me the most in this game. Look for the Chiefs to slowly start to pull away in the 2nd half.

The Steelers are lucky just to be here. While their defense is good, their offense struggles to score, and they'll need to score to even keep this game close. I think the Chiefs know that they need to start playing the way they know how to, and I expect we'll see their best game on Sunday. Kansas City coach Andy Reid's teams are 11-5 when playing their first playoff game. Blowout city. Chiefs cover.

I'm obviously well aware the Steelers were just pounded in Kansas City a few weeks ago, but are you aware there were five fumbles in that game combined and Pittsburgh didn't recover any of them? That's just bad luck. Plus, star pass-rusher TJ Watt wasn't 100 percent healthy then. KC star wideout Tyreek Hill isn't 100 percent healthy now (heel) and frankly hasn't looked quite the same since returning from COVID. Do I think the Steelers win here? Obviously not, but they are playing with house money and can stay within 10 if not 7. I'd hold out if I thought this would return to +13 but don't think it will.

Patrick Mahomes has owned the Steelers — lock, stock and barrel. In two games, the Chiefs QB has touchdown nine touchdown passes while completing 46-of-58 attempts. The Chiefs piled up 78 points in those contests, even while easing off the pedal in the third quarter of this season's meeting. Ben Roethlisberger is often at his best when Pittsburgh trails considerably, and that is a plausible scenario for Sunday's matchup. The soon-to-be retiree will go out with a bang, throwing the ball all over the field, and could notch a few late TDs to assure an Over.

The Chiefs were dealing with a COVID outbreak, and didn't have Travis Kelce, when they hosted the Steelers in Week 16. Kansas City still raced out to a 30-0 lead en route to a 36-10 win. This game should be more competitive, but I'll take the Chiefs to cover because of their matchup advantages. Their defense is fully healthy. During Kansas City's 9-1 finish, the team showed it can clamp down on any limited offense. The Steelers have a pedestrian attack and were fortunate to escape Baltimore with a win. Lay the points.