The Saints need a win to put themselves in position for a potential playoff berth, which has inflated this line about two points beyond where it should stand. That's not to say New Orleans cannot pull off the road win behind its defense, but they are simply getting too many points here. Matt Ryan has been consistent down the stretch, and star tight end Kyle Pitts is active. Arthur Smith has done a solid job with a team that's lost significant playmaking talent. Ryan threw for 343 yards and two touchdowns against this defense on Nov. 7. He should have enough success to stay inside this number.

Atlanta TE Kyle Pitts (hamstring), the rookie sensation, is a likely go, giving Matt Ryan his primary collaborator as the QB seeks his sixth straight interception-free game. The Saints’ offense is too sputtering to be granting this many points. All but one of eight starts by QB Taysom Hill has wound up Under. The intense rivalry should push Atlanta to play as if a postseason berth were at stake.

Atlanta's games have gone under in six of its last seven, and its offense has averaged 16 points over that span. The Under is 5-1 in Falcons home games, and New Orleans comes in on a six-game Under streak. The Saints' defense has stepped up in the absence of QB Jameis Winston. The New Orleans offense has scored 30 points combined over the past three games, while the defense has allowed 39 points over the last four. It's a big game, the second time around for the division opponents and a playoff spot is possible for the Saints.

The Saints haven't been pretty offensively since they lost Jamies Winston to injury. Still, they find themselves on the brink of a postseason berth. They need to defeat NFC South rival Atlanta on the road and need San Francisco to lose. This is the type of spot where Sean Payton shines. He’ll make enough successful play calls offensively and ride his defense and a turnover edge.

The Saints are hoping to sneak into the playoffs with a win here and some help, but the Falcons have played Sean Payton and Co. tough over the years, including earning a win earlier this season against a much hotter Saints team. New Orleans won last week but it was not a great day for the offense against a Panthers defense that has struggled a ton in the second half. The Falcons defense impressed in limiting Josh Allen last week, and this should be a team eager to play spoiler versus a major rival and with a coaching staff that is safe heading into the offseason. I think anything above a three-point line is too much.