While I believe Taysom Hill actually gives the Saints their best chance in this game, their injury problems and lack of receiving talent makes this a tenuous matchup against a loaded Cowboys team getting all of their playmakers back. Dallas remains one of my favorites to win the NFC, and given it has lost (and failed to cover) three of its last four games, this is a perfect get-right spot for Dak Prescott & Co. I did not expect this spread to balloon so quickly, and it may be on its way to a full touchdown before kickoff, so best to grab it now and eat the lost value while ensuring we don't lose more.

The Cowboys might be getting Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb back at receiver while missing Cedric Wilson. Saints RB Alvin Kamara is questionable, while Mark Ingram is probable after missing last week. The edge looks to be in the Cowboys' favor here. I like Dak Prescott running the NFL’s No. 1 offense with his receivers back. The Saints have lost four straight. Cowboys to cover.

I was fully prepared to take the Saints +4.5 if Alvin Kamara and their two starting offensive tackles were going to play. According to various reports, none of them will. So I have to take Dallas by default even if Taysom Hill is an upgrade at QB for New Orleans. Defensive ends Marcus Davenport and Tanoh Kpassagnon are also out. The Cowboys have CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper back and frankly might be better from a game management perspective without head coach Mike McCarthy (COVID).

The news has come fast and furious out of both camps, and it’s not over. Dallas was set back when coach Mike McCarthy went on the COVID-19 list, but it appears as if WR Amari Cooper is trading places and will be available. The Saints will go with run-oriented QB Taysom Hill, who could be limited by an injury. The fates of RB Alvin Kamara and tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk are unclear. Three key defensive players are out for sure. With some variables lingering, New Orleans appears in potentially worse shape.

This line has fallen to a key number, likely off the news that Mike McCarthy is out with a positive COVID test. But Dan Quinn is a competent replacement and Kellen Moore can simply focus on play-calling. CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are expected to be back. And if we get more Tony Pollard and less Ezekiel Elliott, it can only help Dallas. Taysom Hill is expected to start for the Saints, who also should get Alvin Kamara back. This is a still a very limited offense. The Cowboys give up 263.3 passing yards per game (27th), but that shouldn't be an issue here. Lay the points.