The Vikings are 5-1 ATS as underdogs this season, while the 49ers have a pitiful record as home favorites under Kyle Shanahan. But that's not what this pick is about. Rather, it's San Francisco's vulnerable secondary and Minnesota's playmakers, which are perfectly positioned to take advantage of it. The 49ers took advantage of a banged up Rams team a couple weeks ago. Other than that, they don't have a quality win this season. Meanwhile, the Vikings are either notching wins or playing extremely close in losses. The hook is especially valuable in this spot, making Minny a worthy play.

The Niners have adopted a run-first mantra the past two weeks, with rushing plays (86) more than double passes (41). As a partial result, they have engaged in games of 41 and 40 points. Handoffs will be plentiful here against a weak defense against the ground game. Four Minnesota defensive linemen expected to contribute at the dawn of the season are out.

The 49ers have dominated the past two weeks, looking like the team we envisioned entering the season. But Kyle Shanahan as a home favorite (3-17-1 ATS) is usually worth a fade. Minnesota has won four of six, the losses coming by three and four points. The Vikings are explosive; they had 14 plays of 10-plus yards against the Packers' stout defense. This should be a thriller that comes down to the wire, so I'm taking the points.