You won't see me taking many double-digit favorites in this space, but the Bucs deserve some love in this spot. Tampa Bay has been dominant against bad teams at home, and coming off consecutive losses bookending a bye, it badly needs a get-right game. Helping matters is that Tom Brady covers three-quarters of the time coming off losses. The Giants get credit for hanging around, but they almost exclusively do that against bad or mediocre teams. The Bucs are averaging 40.5 points per game at home compared to 23.4 points per game on the road. Unless Tampa Bay is truly cratering, which is certainly possible, this should be a safe enough wager.

I really liked the Giants until they ruled out defensive captain and safety Logan Ryan, but I still think they can stay within 10 points as they are getting a handful of guys back from injury off the bye. New York has played quite well the past three games, winning two and nearly upsetting the Chiefs. The Bucs are very much going to miss run-stopper Vita Vea. And we all know about Tom Brady's recent ATS issues in prime-time games. Daniel Jones has been an ATS stud on the road in his young career.

The Giants have covered 19 of the last 23 times they've suited up as road underdogs. They've covered every road game this season except the visit to Dallas when Daniel Jones got knocked out early. In his career, Jones has thrown 27 TDs against eight INTs on the road. With left tackle Andrew Thomas and running back Saquon Barkley expected back tonight, I'll back that trend to continue. Tampa Bay should get Rob Gronkowski back but Antonio Brown's continued absence makes this offense less lethal. Grab the points.

The Buccaneers have lost back-to-back games surrounding their bye, while the Giants are well-rested after getting last week off. That will likely push many people to the underdog, but we've seen this year that a bye week isn't necessarily a good thing. Many teams have come back from the break disorganized and out of rhythm, and wouldn't you expect that from this Giants coaching staff? On the other side, the loss to Washington should wake the Bucs up, and they've been excellent at home against bad teams this year, beating each of the Falcons, Dolphins and Bears by at least 23 points. I expect a similar game here, even if Tom Brady has to play past his normal bedtime.