This is a great spot to back the Browns, and given that a move to +3 is unlikely, I'll take them here. There's momentum behind the Patriots as winners of three straight and some talk that suddenly New England is going to be a team capable of making noise in the playoffs. Wrong. Cleveland has finally gotten healthy defensively and is stronger up front on both sides of the ball. It will be able to run just fine, and Baker Mayfield can do enough to move the ball through the air. There's a reason the Pats are not getting the full three at home. A moneyline sprinkle is completely worthwhile, too.

The Patriots have won three straight, but aside from the Chargers they've beaten only last-place teams this season ... and a big reason they beat L.A. was because they could run on the worst run-stopping team in the league. That won't work against the Browns, who are No. 2 in yards per carry allowed. Both teams' top RBs will miss this game, but I think the Browns will still be able to run it with D'Ernest Johnson (after a week where they gave two O-linemen extensions and cut Odell Beckham). Mac Jones will have to be more than a game manager if Cleveland continues to stuff the run, so look for the Pats to continue struggling at home. Grab the points.

I love the Patriots here. They're playing as well as anyone in the AFC right now. The defense has 10 takeaways since Week 6, the second most in the NFL over that span. I think New England forces Baker Mayfield into a costly mistake or two. That'll be enough to cover this small line.

This line initially ticked downward as bettors took a stand that the Browns are the better team in the matchup, but the Nick Chubb news reversed its course. At 2.5, I think the Browns are still the play. They've shown the ability to be effective running the ball when necessary with D'Ernest Johnson, and most of their injury concerns during the week have cleared up. We still don't know who's going to run the ball for the Patriots, and while I want to believe Foxborough is going to be a tough place for the Browns to come in and win, the Pats dropped their first four home games this year before beating up the Jets. Cleveland proves its the much better team on Sunday.

Mac Jones has been the most reliable rookie QB in the NFL this season, but that doesn't mean I'm ready to bet on him as a favorite. Not against a team as complete as this Cleveland squad. Jones, like any young QB, has struggled under pressure, and he'll be facing a Cleveland defense that's been terrific at pressuring QBs. Meanwhile, the Cleveland offense looks like it's been freed from Odell, not the other way around.

Doubt this line will hit 3 so I'll jump in now on a Browns team that's 9-4 playing without Odell Beckham Jr. Baker Mayfield has thrown 16 TDs and three INTs in those games. The Patriots are 1-4 at home, only beating the Jets, and they've mustered three offensive touchdowns and 4.4 yards per play over their past two games. D'Ernest Johnson is a more-than-adequate replacement if Nick Chubb is unable to play. The Pats are dealing with major injury issues at running back and should struggle to run against a defense allowing 3.5 yards per carry. Take the points.

The Patriots have figured it out and the leash is now off QB Mac Jones. New England has won and covered three straight and in that span boast a +62 point differential coupled with a +5 turnover differential. They've scored 24+ points in five straight and I think this week could be tough for Cleveland coming off such a monster win over Cincinnati. The Browns have lost six straight in New England. Finally, the Patriots have allowed fewer than 30 points in regulation in every game this season.

Cleveland must be cursed, as it has endured injuries, disgruntled players and now a positive COVID-19 test for RB Nick Chubb, the league’s No. 3 rusher who is coming off a monster performance. If there is one aspect in which Bill Belichick excels, it is defensive scheming for an offense that's missing key pieces. The Patriots have not trailed at the end of regulation in any of their last four outings — the overtime game against Dallas in Week 6 was their only straight-up loss — and have scored at least 24 points in each.

I will hold off on a spread pick here, but the Browns probably are going to be without Nick Chubb on Sunday after he tested positive for COVID. Over the past two seasons, Cleveland averages 27.3 points in the 19 games Chubb has played and 18.8 in the six he hasn't. New England might be down its top two running backs as well (see news feed), and I don't expect both coaches to start throwing on every play.

The Browns just annihilated what I thought was a pretty good Bengals team in the most "addition by subtraction" performance you'll ever see. But despite scoring 41 points, the Cleveland offense didn't exactly put together a complete game, managing multiple first downs on just three drives. You have to think the explosive touchdowns won't be there against Bill Belichick's defense, which just held Carolina to 34 yards and three first downs through its first seven drives before picking off Sam Darnold three times. I trust Belichick in Foxborough to handle a limited offense like Cleveland's, but I'm not sure how New England scores many points either. This seems like a total that's going to drop throughout the week.