The Saints are coming off a Super Bowl-type win, which could mean a letdown here. They have a limited offense and shouldn't be laying a full touchdown. Atlanta has played five straight one-score games. Even without Calvin Ridley, I like Matt Ryan, Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson to keep the Falcons close.

The Saints were able to get healthy during their bye week, then got rough injury news following the Bucs game with Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas both ruled out for the season. But Taysom Hill looks like he'll be able to play, and I believe they'll make him the starter. He excelled even as a passer in that role last year, but this particular matchup makes me think the Saints will focus on running the ball consistently and playing good defense against an Atlanta squad that will be without Calvin Ridley. We're not use to seeing a Falcons-Saints game with a total this low, but there's good reason to expect a lower-scoring game here.

The injury to a starting QB customarily moves a spread by more than a point. Many starting QBs are worth a touchdown to the spread -- Jameis Winston isn't one of them. Atlanta’s offensive clunker last Sunday factors in, but the Falcons averaged nearly 30 ppg in the three prior outings. Even with Winston, the Saints rank 29th for total yards gained and 31st in passing. All things considered, this line could be halved.