The Philadelphia offense has been underwhelming in recent weeks but has faced a string of tough defenses. I think this is the breakout game for Jalen Hurts and his receiving corps, including DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, against a horrible Lions pass defense that doesn't typically see a lot of pass attempts against it, depressing their overall numbers, but gives up a lot of yards when teams do throw. The Eagles are clearly the better team, so I'm laying the points here.

How many times can a team "pull out all the stops" in a given season? That's what the Lions did last week to some early success before being bludgeoned by the Rams. Everyone is seemingly on the underdogs here, yet the line has barely shifted. Detroit is clearly just throwing stuff at the wall. If you have a soft spot for Dan Campbell, cool. I look at an Eagles team that is, simply, more talented on both sides. The Lions haven’t scored more than two touchdowns since Week 1, and their defense isn’t good. Jalen Hurts may finally be able to make some plays with his arm against this secondary. Nick Sirianni was clearly the wrong hire for Philadelphia, but there’s at least a chance he can survive. Lose this game, and the book may be closed on him for good. Detroit’s only covers are as underdogs of 7.5 points or more.

True, the Lions have been competitive despite not winning a game, while the Eagles offense has looked broken. But here's the thing: Never back a public 'dog. And that's what the Lions are, with 65% of the bets on Detroit. Despite that, the line has barely moved, staying at Eagles -3.5 since it opened until a slight drop to -3 on Sunday morning. If Vegas books are fine with needing Philly to cover, why argue? The narrative is that the Lions have lost to good teams … but you could say the same thing about the Eagles. Lay the points.

I am addicted to betting the Detroit Lions. I am also addicted to betting against bad teams that are favored on the road. I don't know what the Eagles have shown anybody this season to cause them to want to trust them as 3.5-point favorites against anybody.

Detroit is 4-3 ATS, in contrast to its 0-7 straight-up record. The Lions play hard and boldly, as evidenced by three trick plays by special teams last Sunday. Philadelphia figures to throw heavily, with RB Miles Sanders going on injured reserve. Detroit ranks eighth in aerial yards allowed, though it is prone to yielding big gains. The Eagles have trailed by between 19 and 27 points in their last four defeats and lead the league in penalties

It’s the perfect spot to see the Lions win their first game of the season after 11 straight losses dating to last year, and when money pushed the Eagles to +3.5 I took the points. Philly's chaotic offensive plan around Jalen Hurts is hard to watch. It’s playground football. The Eagles won the season opener with it and were fortunate to rally for another victory in Week 5. This will be the first dreg of the league that the Lions have faced in 2021, and they’re 4-3 ATS on the season.

In many ways, the Eagles are more of a mess than the Lions are because Detroit knows it is rebuilding while Philly somehow was deluded into thinking it could perhaps contend in the NFC East this season. One of SportsLine's top fans clued me into what's going on up in Philly and it sure doesn't sound good with a lot of players griping. Plus, top running back Miles Sanders is surely out -- not that the Eagles run it much with anyone but Jalen Hurts. The Lions have to know they only have a few realistic chances to win this season. This is absolutely one of them.

The Lions are a better team than their 0-7 record suggests. No, I'm not saying they're a *good* team, but look at their schedule: Rams, Bengals, Packers, Ravens, 49ers...I could keep going. Give them credit, they keep showing up and fighting. They're going to get a win at some point and quite frankly it could be this week at home, however I'll take the +3.5 for insurance.