The British are going to think we dislike them for sending them our worst American football teams every time, but the Jaguars have kind of been London’s home team. They come into this game as an underdog with no wins on the season yet they statistically have the better offense and defense in this game. And the Dolphins have their top receiver and corner out for this one. I took the points with the Jaguars.

Whether it’s the belief that the Jaguars are overdue or that their annual London game gives them an edge, the public has depressed this spread a half-point to a field goal. Patience pays off for backers of Miami, which likely welcomes back Tua Tagovailoa. The QB engineered a season-opening win before sitting out the next four games, all defeats. That is 16 fewer than Jacksonville has lost outright in a row. Favorites are 18-11 ATS in merry olde England games.

It's hard to bet on a team that's lost 20 straight, but should the Dolphins be laying a full field goal to anyone? They would be 0-5 too if not for a late Patriots fumble in Week 1. Miami ranks 26th in offensive success rate, while Jacksonville ranks ninth. And Tua Tagovailoa, at this point of his career and coming back from injury, isn't a major upgrade over Jacoby Brissett. DeVante Parker and Xavien Howard did travel to London; that's no guarantee they'll play Sunday. Take the points.

The Dolphins saw the return of Tua Tagovailoa to practice this week, and it looks like he could be back on the field for this game. That makes a huge difference, as the offense has been terrible with Jacoby Brissett, a much different style of quarterback. The Dolphins made positive changes to their OL alignment and should have success against a Jacksonville defense that can't get after the quarterback, while the Jaguars offensive line suffered a big loss last week with Brandon Linder's injury. I think this line should be Dolphins -3 with Brissett at QB and Dolphins -6 with Tua, so even if the likely scenario of Tua playing doesn't pan out, I think we're still 50-50 with this number.