There's a lot to like about the Chargers, especially the way they've been playing this season with competent coaching, but they're being a bit overvalued in this spot after three straight wins and with the Ravens coming off a 1-2 ATS mark over their last three games. Baltimore is 4-1 despite struggling to run the ball. Guess where Los Angeles' defense is weakest? If the Ravens can complement Lamar Jackson's improved passing attack with more action on the ground, they may be able to go up and down the field all afternoon. Even if the Chargers answer them some, the spread being under a field goal for the homestanding Ravens with LA. travelling across the country for the game is the right call.

The Chargers are one of this week's more popular teams to back, with the line coming down from 3.5 on Monday and even dropping to three on Tuesday after Baltimore's comeback win. There's no doubt the Chargers are for real, but the Ravens aren't being given proper credit for being one of the two best teams in the AFC, ahead of the boys in powder blue. They'd be 5-0 if not for a 55-yard Raiders FG at the end of regulation, and Lamar Jackson's growth as a passer has elevated the offense. Yes, the defense is coming off a poor showing; so is the Chargers defense, and they rank 32nd in yards per rush allowed. In a tough travel spot for L.A., take Baltimore.

This has slipped under 3 points for the first time this week so I'll take it. Yeah, short week for the Ravens, but Monday's game was at home -- and did you know teams that won a Monday game are 9-0 in their next games dating to last year? (see news feed) I believe Baltimore will be energized and not flat off that amazing comeback win Monday over Indy. It's a tricky 10 a.m. Pacific time kick for the Chargers, who are 1-3 SU in their past four in the Eastern Time Zone. LA struggles against the run, allowing a league-worst 157.6 yards per game. That's right in Baltimore's wheelhouse. Finally, if this comes down to kickers, it's a no contest as the Ravens have Justin Tucker and the Chargers still don't have a sure thing there in Tristan Vizcaino, who has missed four PATs.

I don't think the 3.5s are going to last. The Ravens will have a short week to prepare for Justin Herbert, who's thrown 11 TD passes against zero interceptions the past three weeks. The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games dating to last season. We can count on Brandon Staley to be aggressive and smart no matter the situation. I could be wrong about the line movement, especially if the Ravens blow out the Colts on Monday Night Football, but to me it seems far more likely this lands at 3 rather than 4.