With Odell Beckham Jr. listed as inactive prior to kickoff, the Browns will be without their best playmaking weapon on the outside. Against a Chiefs team that has a bevy of them, that's obviously not good. There's been plenty of action on Cleveland in this spot, but Kansas City thrives at home. It's also incredibly successful in season-opening games. Every year in Week 1 it seems people want to discount the Chiefs against opponents they think might be good that season. Kansas City has won four straight Week 1 games by 10+ points and six in a row such games by at least a touchdown. With KC healthy, this is an easy play for me.

Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Cleveland Browns have had this game circled on the calendar all offseason. Problem is I only trust Kansas City in that situation. Don't get me wrong, I'm not down on the Browns at all, they're going to have a great season, this is just an awful place for them to be in. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have made it very clear the moment their Super Bowl loss ended that they're coming back with a vengeance and I believe them...the offseason spending reflects it. Arrowhead will be rocking, and so will I on the home team.

We know the Chiefs made a big effort to shore up their offensive line during the offseason. And judging by the preseason, all looks to be going well in that department. It's Kansas City's defense that worries me in this particular matchup. Look for Cleveland to use the same formula it utilized in their playoff meeting last season - run the ball, shrink the game, try to minimize mistakes. This definitely will be a tightly contested game, so take the Browns and the points.

I will normally wait until at least Friday to pick NFL games, but I'm going to break that rule here simply because most books have the Chiefs now at -6.5 and some at -7, and I don't want those numbers so I'll have to hope no COVID issues between now and Sunday for Kansas City. The Browns could be stellar this year but are they ready to win at a full Arrowhead Stadium? Not sure of that. Plus, I'm sure you know that Cleveland has just a single opening day victory since returning to the NFL. Sometimes you see a Super Bowl hangover even for the loser -- but I think the Chiefs (and their new offensive line) come out like gangbusters to put that terrible effort behind them once and for all. They have covered four straight Week 1 games.

This line appears to match the off-season hype for the Browns, and discounts the improvements on the Chiefs offensive line. My model makes Kansas City 6.4 better on a neutral field, and 8.7 points better at Arrowhead Stadium. Look for a healthy Chiefs team to start the season on the right foot with a 7+ point victory in front of the home crowd.

No matter how optimistic you are about the Browns, I just don't think this line makes much sense. Yes, the last time these two teams took the field in January, the Browns only lost by five points, but Patrick Mahomes left that game with a concussion and the Chiefs offense still rolled up 438 yards and probably should have put more points on the board. Now, they head into the season much stronger on the offensive line, negating the Browns' upgrades defensively. If Kansas City gets on a roll in the first half, I'm not sure the Browns passing offense will be able to lead the team back, especially with Odell Beckham's health an open question.