There have been 11 Super Bowls that finished with a total of 50 points or higher. The under has gone 8-3 in those 11 games. In this decade alone we've seen five such games, and the under is 4-1. That trend, combined with Tampa's likely gameplan of controlling the clock with its run game against a KC defense that is bad against the run leads me to believe this will be a lower-scoring game than hoped for.

Adding a money-line pick now that the line has dropped. If Patrick Mahomes had finished the first playoff game, the Chiefs likely would be entering off two straight blowout wins. I trust Andy Reid, with the extra time to prepare, to keep the Bucs' off balance enough so their pass rush doesn't blow up too many K.C. drives. Look for the unheralded Chiefs' defense to pressure Tom Brady up the middle as K.C. repeats.

Tampa Bay is 7-0 overall and 5-2 ATS since losing to Kansas City in Week 12. The Buccaneers' power rating increased by 1.5 points with the return of Vita Vea in the NFC Championship Game. The Chiefs lost a point when LT Eric Fisher went down. The Chiefs have the advantage at quarterback, but the Buccaneers have the better offensive and defensive lines. My power ratings have Kansas City at 110.5 and Tampa Bay at 109 plus one point for the home field advantage.

It now looks like rain will not be a factor Sunday, but this total still feels too high -- in perfect conditions in Week 12, the teams combined for 51 points. The Under is 6-1 in the past seven Super Bowls with a total of at least 50 and that lone Over took overtime to get there.

It might be the easy way out to bet a moneyline here, but I simply refuse to wager on a game sitting right on 3 points (to avoid the push) and the spread isn't going to change a half-point in either direction by kickoff -- highly recommend bettors buy a half-point in either direction you are leaning. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has flustered Tom Brady in the past by generating pressure not so much on the edges but up the middle. Spags' teams are 3-2 vs. Brady's teams dating to the Chiefs defensive coordinator's days with the Giants when Big Blue knocked off the unbeaten Patriots in SB XLII. That KC defense flustered Brady for three quarters earlier this season.

I originally liked Kansas City, but after doing some more analysis I really think all of the shuffling on the offensive line will be a huge factor and hurt the Chiefs. Three linemen -- the left and right tackles and right guard -- will be playing out of position. That's not good going up against Tampa Bay's front seven, which has five Pro Bowl-caliber players. On the other side of the ball, Kansas City's run defense ranked 21st in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (122.1). With Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II, the Buccaneers can exploit that. I've got Tampa Bay.

This game will mark the 14th time in Super Bowl history that we'll be getting a rematch from the regular season and if the first 13 games are any indication, the Chiefs could be in for a fight. In Week 12, the Chiefs defeated the Buccaneers 27-24. This is notable because the team that won the regular-season game has gone 6-7 straight-up in the Super Bowl rematch. No AFC team has ever beaten an NFC team twice in one season. The Chiefs will be without their two best tackles, which is significant because the Chiefs' offensive line is ranked 14th while Tampa Bay's is ranked 9th at Football Outsiders. Take the points with the home underdog.

The line for the first home-game Super Bowl in history has that host team -- with Tom Brady at QB -- as a field goal underdog. That is no mistake. The Chiefs being down a pair of tackles is the only reason this is still at -3, and I expect it to be up to -4 prior to kickoff. Kansas City has not been a great ATS team this season, but it is 5-1 ATS when favored by six points or less. It has the advantage at QB with Patrick Mahomes (due to his youth and mobility) and at the offensive playmakers positions. The Bucs may keep the Chiefs on edge with their stellar defense in the first half -- remember the 49ers last year? -- but I trust Andy Reid (off a bye) and KC's coaching staff (where it also has an edge) to get the job done in the end and repeat as Super Bowl champions.

This total has the chance to close as one of the biggest numbers in Super Bowl history, and at 56.5, it sits just below the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl in 2017 that went Over. But here's the thing: that game stayed Under during regulation and was well on its way toward cashing the Under late in the third quarter before the Patriots' improbable rally. If you count that one as an Under in regulation, the last seven Super Bowls with a total of 50+ have stayed Under dating back to 2001. We just typically don't see fireworks early on as teams stay tight after all the pageantry leading up to kickoff, and I think the value is certainly on the Under as a result.

The Bucs have put together an incredible run thanks in large part to their GOAT quarterback, but Tom Brady has also had his moments of struggle, throwing picks on three straight drives in the NFC title game and letting the Packers back in the door. The Chiefs have been absolutely dominant with Patrick Mahomes under center during the playoffs, erasing any worries about their ho-hum second half. Even in Tampa, I love the Chiefs to get the win thanks to a better overall offense, the best coaching staff in the league, and a defense that has come to play during the postseason. I don't mind laying 3 or 3.5, but the value will likely be on the moneyline if you wait.

Although the Chiefs won't have LT Eric FIsher to help slow the Bucs' fierce pass rush, tackles Mike Remmers and Andrew Wylie aren't going to be bludgeoned the way the Packers' tackles were last week. The Nov. 29 meeting in Tampa ended in a 27-24 K.C. win; it wasn't really close, though. The Chiefs rolled up 543 yards and led 27-10 entering the fourth quarter. Look for Frank Clark, who sacked Josh Allen twice, to have another big day in the Super Bowl as K.C. repeats -- and covers.