Aaron Rodgers has covered in 64 percent of his home games. Tampa Bay is playing in its third consecutive road playoff game. The Buccaneers were very fortunate that the Saints committed four turnovers last week. Green Bay is peaking at the right time. The Packers averaged 5.2 yards per rush against the NFL's No. 1 defense last week. They also did not surrender a sack. The Packers defense is coming on, having allowed under 20 points in the last three games.

While the potential return of Pro Bowl-caliber defensive tackle Vita Vea would certainly boost the Bucs, I simply can't take them to win a third straight road playoff game. The past seven teams to win their first two road postseason games and play a third away in the conference championship are 1-6 straight up and ATS. I do also think there's a warm weather team playing in cold weather factor working against Tampa, although obviously Tom Brady is familiar with that. New Orleans would have beaten the Bucs last week if not for an uncharacteristic three picks from Drew Brees, and the Saints are the only good team the Bucs have played since Week 12 or beaten since Week 6 (which so happened to be Green Bay).

I am loading up on Green Bay. I like the Packers a lot because they are tough to beat at home at this time of the year. Since Aaron Rodgers became the starting quarterback, Green Bay is 30-6 at home in December and January. Also, in the last six games the Packers have given up just 17.3 points a game. They'll be able to hold down a Tampa Bay offense that didn't do much against New Orleans last week but greatly benefited from four Saints turnovers. Rodgers and the Packers won't make the same mistakes that Drew Brees and the Saints made.

The Packers' offensive line is peaking at the right time. Against the Rams' elite defense, Green Bay averaged 5.2 yards per carry and Aaron Rodgers was not sacked. He was hit once. Defensively, the Pack has allowed an average of 16 points over the last four games. The Bucs have had a great year, but they aren't likely to be plus-4 in turnovers in the NFC title game, the margin they enjoyed last week at New Orleans. Lay the field goal.

The Packers were my top-rated team entering the NFL Playoffs, and while I would have taken them up to -4 if the line didn't drop, the fact that it's now a field goal makes it the time to jump. The Buccaneers are getting a lot of credit for the Saints win, but a road game in a dome and road game at Lambeau Field in January are two different things altogether. Green Bay is more consistent on both ends. It has the best league's best QB in Aaron Rodgers. It has a strong running game. And it has a solid defense. Green Bay has defeated three straight playoff teams by an average of 19.7 points, and it is 10-3 ATS this season as a favorite of -8 or lower. This line should be -5. Back the Pack.

The Bucs were able to turn three turnovers into short-field TDs in their upset of the Saints last week, but that doesn't seem repeatable against a Packers offense that's first in turnover percentage with a QB that has thrown just five picks all year. With only 316 yards to its credit last week, the Bucs offense didn't really have the type of statistical game you'd expect from a 30-point showing. And that's bad news against a Packers defense that continues to play great, allowing only 244 yards against the Rams despite Jared Goff looking sharper than expected. I'd take the Packers up to -4 here but think the line should be a tick higher than that.

Winning three consecutive playoff games on the road is as hard as ice, a substance the Bucs might encounter Sunday. Only four teams have navigated such a gauntlet to reach the Super Bowl. Were this a regular season matchup in mid-October, a case could be made for Tampa Bay. But the extensive travels usually catch up to teams. The Packers have four postseason wins outright in a row on their home turf. Though Aaron Rodgers lacks the wealth of playmakers afforded Tom Brady, no QB is playing better, and he manages to deliver passes to lesser lights. While the cold will not affect Brady, this is, still a warm-weather team.