The Bears are getting a lot of credit from their market for their play as of late, and you know what? It’s deserved. But when you actually look at the teams Chicago has defeated, it creates questions, including whether it can play to the same level against arguably the top team in the NFC. It is rare I will not take the Packers and Aaron Rodgers against the Bears, particularly with a spread this meager. I like this much better at Green Bay -4 and took that at -115, but since I would bet this through -5.5, it’s still an easy decision. The No. 1 seed is on the line, and the Packers will get it with a touchdown-plus win over the Bears

The loss of T David Bakhtiari (knee) for Green Bay cannot be overstated. But QB Aaron Rodgers is nothing if not adaptable, and he still can carve up a secondary that's missing two of its five mainstays. Collectively, the Packers are driven to lock down the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the home games that go with it. Individually, Rodgers will be motivated to sew up the league MVP award with chief rival Patrick Mahomes idle. In 25 appearances against the Bears, Rodgers has guided Green Bay to 18 covers.

The Bears have improved since the last meeting, but we're getting value at this number. Green Bay will go all-out for the No. 1 seed, and even without David Bakhtiari the Packers' offense should be lethal. Back Green Bay to improve to 17-5 ATS in its last 22 visits to Soldier Field.

Green Bay will be playing all its key guys as it gets the top seed in the NFC with a victory. I'm rather shocked this line is so small as I believe oddsmakers are being deceived by Chicago's three-game winning streak. Mitchell Trubisky suddenly looks like a legit NFL quarterback, but it came against three of the league's worst defenses -- and the Packers aren't one of those. Speaking of defense, the Bears will be without top of their top cornerbacks in rookie Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine. Davante Adams may have 200 yards receiving.

The Bears have shaken off a six-game losing streak to win three in a row as their offense has become one of the hottest in the league. But look at the run of defenses they've played recently (DET, HOU, MIN, JAC); most offenses are going to have success during that stretch. This Chicago team fell behind 41-10 against the Packers despite getting extra time to prepare off the bye, and it's hard to shake that total dominance in the last game that featured a quality opponent. The Packers defense has held three of its last four opponents under 300 yards, including an excellent Tennessee offense last week. They should be laying more points, but there still may be value to be had in the market.

The Bears' offense has been on fire ever since Mitchell Trubisky returned to the lineup. Green Bay is an offensive juggernaut. The first matchup in Lambeau Field generated 66 points. With the weather not looking threatening -- 32 degrees, little wind -- I'll go Over.