It says a lot about the Bengals that they're coming off a shocking upset of the Steelers and are nearly eight-point underdogs to the 4-10 Texans. And that's for a good reason because last week's result was an aberration that saw Cincinnati take advantage of an imploding Pittsburgh team. The Texans are much more talented offensively and should be able to move up and down the field with ease. I like this much better at a flat 7 and will probably buy the half point, but I don't have that luxury here.

This line has come down and now there's value on the hosts. Cincinnati is on a short week following a Monday Night Football win that felt like the Bengals' Super Bowl. And the Bengals won't have leading wideout Tyler Boyd (concussion). The Texans have lost three straight, but two of those were heartbreakers to the Colts. Lay it.

The Texans have had a miserable season, but they've played better than their 4-10 record suggests. They've been the victims of a tough early schedule and some close calls. On Sunday they'll catch a break going against a Bengals team that was lucky to beat a struggling Steelers team. My model says Houston covers more than 60 percent of the time and wins by 13 so you're getting good value at this number.

This is a terrible spot for the Bengals, who are coming off a 110 percent effort game against the hated Steelers where they secured an improbable win. Now they have a quick turnaround to play a meaningless game during the holiday week. I can't see them showing up at all here, while Deshaun Watson seems likely to carve up a Cincinnati defense that ranks 25th in net yards per pass attempt, especially as the Bengals defense has just 16 sacks on the year. The Bengals scraped together just 78 yards of pass offense in the win last week, marking six straight games under the 210 mark since their bye. Don't expect them to keep up with Watson in this one.