The Cowboys return home after playing five of their last seven games on the road. Their struggles this season have been well-documented, and at home, they've gone just 1-5 ATS. Look for San Francisco's offense to outproduce Dallas' and help the team to just its second win in seven contests.

I absolutely think the wrong team is favored here. The Niners are still very banged up -- although apparently Raheem Mostert will play -- and they have been stuck in Arizona for three weeks or so due to COVID-19 regulations in California. The Niners seemed to mail it in last week vs. Washington and this is their last "road" game (i.e. away from Arizona), so I don't expect much effort. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs. Also Andy Dalton > Nick Mullens.

This line surprises me. I know the Cowboys' blowout win on the road last week against the Bengals wasn't totally backed up by the stats, but this 49ers team has lost five of its last six games and the offense is just 21st in DVOA and 20th in points per drive. Yes, the Dallas defense has been awful, but it's getting healthier this week with the cornerback room returning multiple players, and Deebo Samuel is out for the Niners as well. Also remember that this is actually a fourth straight road game for San Francisco after two "home" games were moved to Arizona. I'd wait to see if Zeke is ruled out and hope for a +3.5, but either way the Cowboys are great value.

San Francisco should not be favored over anyone with Nick Mullens playing quarterback. Deebo Samuel is out for the year. Dallas will use Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to hang in there and possibly win outright.