The Patriots had extra rest, but this is their third straight road game. Damien Harris won't play, and Julian Edelman won't return for this one. With no passing game to worry about, the Dolphins can focus on stopping the run. Lay the small number.

Bill Belichick thrives against rookie quarterbacks, and the Dolphins have a plethora of key names on the injury report on the offensive side. But some of that is gamesmanship as 23 players combined drew a questionable tag, and even with the uncertainty, I'm backing what I think is the better team with key linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts returning to practice this week. Good defenses can largely shut down this limited Patriots offense that relies heavily on the run, and Miami has a great defense with those players available. I'll bank that Tua Tagovailoa's improvement over the last few weeks will beat out Belichick's gameplan, but definitely wait until closer to kickoff to see who's on the inactive list.

Yes, I know Bill Belichick rules against rookie QBs and his defense befuddled Justin Herbert a couple of weeks ago. I didn't like this game earlier in the week but do now with it down to -1.5 and the Fins getting healthier by the day at running back, receiver and linebacker. Shoot, even top tight end Mike Gesicki might play when it was thought he would sit. If anyone knows what Belichick might try on defense against Tua Tagovailoa, it surely would be Fins coach Brian Flores, the former long-time Pats defensive assistant coach. Miami is an NFL-best 10-3 ATS, while New England is playing a third straight road game, and that's almost always a losing proposition.

It’s a rare third consecutive road game for an NFL team, which makes the Patriots a play-against. The public has cooperated by pushing the line down to 1.5, as if the Dolphins’ Brian Flores, likely coach of the year recipient, will be cowed by mentor Bill Belichick. Won’t happen. Miami’s often immovable defense is a nightmarish match for New England’s sputtering offense. Several ailing ‘Fins are set to return after sitting out a spell. The visitors have won nine consecutive games straight-up against rookie QBs, but Pats teams of recent vintage have had far better offenses.

This will be a low-scoring game with Miami winning by about five. Tua Tagovailoa played O.K. last week and he'll do enough against New England, which has a good running game but no passing game whatsoever. Lay the points.