The Vikings have climbed back into the playoff race by winning five of their last six games, but their last three games all came at home against teams that are a combined 8-28 on the year and Minnesota didn't win any convincingly. They face a much better team this week, one coming off a much-needed bye week for Tom Brady and the offense. Minnesota's offense ranks well but has played a lot of subpar defenses, and a Bucs unit that ranks first in yards per rush can take away what the Vikings want to do most on offense. Minnesota's defense hasn't looked great during that recent stretch of facing bad teams, and now they're without Eric Kendricks. I think the Bucs roll here.

The Buccaneers are rested and their defense is going to play well. Minnesota has won five of six but the Vikings just squeaked by Carolina and Jacksonville. This is a bad spot for Minnesota going on the road. Lay the points.