With this down below the key number, I'm backing the Saints defense. Just like last year, New Orleans is not getting credit for its quality of play without Drew Brees. Last year, it was Teddy Bridgewater. Now, it's Taysom Hill. You know what hasn't changed? Sean Payton. As an Alvin Kamara fantasy manager and frequent Saints bettor, I have my own issues with Payton's obsession with Hill, but that's just the offense. New Orleans' defense has held opponents to 28 combined points in the last four games -- all covers. The Falcons are being overvalued after last week's domination, plus the return of Julio Jones. There's not a great history with division opponents playing twice in three weeks with the same favorite covering both times, but the situation is right here.

The Saints' defense ranks second in DVOA and yards allowed per play at just 5.1. QB Taysom Hill is becoming a bigger dropoff from Drew Brees than we first thought, as his best assets are his legs. The Saints have gone Under in four straight games. Atlanta has played far better defensively since Raheem Morris took over as interim coach, with the Under hitting in four of its last five games. New Orleans posted a 24-9 home victory over Atlanta just two weeks ago.

Were the Falcons missing RB Todd Gurley and WR Julio Jones, they could raise a white flag of surrender. But the tandem that fuels Atlanta’s offense is expected to answer the bell after healing up. If it seems as though the Saints just beat Atlanta, well, they did - two weeks ago. Sweeping a division rival in such a short time frame is challenging, particularly when the winner of the first meeting deploys a backup QB. Taysom Hill has delivered two straight-up victories in place of Drew Brees but has yet to throw a TD pass and accounted for only 78 aerial yards last week. The Falcons, now familiarized with Hill, can similarly contain him.

This is a great revenge spot for the Falcons after the Saints completely shut down their offense in the first meeting. It looks like Julio Jones is trending toward playing, which is a big deal after he only managed to see the field on 35 percent of the offensive snaps in the last game against the Saints. I think a Falcons defense that ranks sixth in DVOA against the run can do a better job against the Saints offense this time around and force Taysom Hill to beat them with his arm, which I'm not sure he's capable of doing. Take the full field goal while you can get it.

This total is too high for these teams in their current states. The Saints defense has been awesome over the last month even when they've had to face a team with a quarterback, allowing just seven points per game in their last four matchups. The Falcons defense has also made strides since Raheem Morris took over, and it's not like Taysom Hill has looked great in his first extended action as starter. The Falcons defense is sixth in DVOA against the run, which should help limit what the Saints can do with the ball. If Julio Jones (questionable), Atlanta has a great shot at getting a revenge win here, but either way I expect this game goes Under.

There's probably zero chance this gets to Falcons +3.5 (we recommend buying up to that number), so we'll jump now in case it drops to +2.5. Atlanta should be 5-1 (is 4-2) since interim coach Raheem Morris took over, and yes that one loss was ugly in New Orleans a couple of weeks ago. However, I'm taking Matt Ryan at home over Taysom Hill (yet to throw a TD pass) all day, especially with Julio Jones and Todd Gurley expected back for Atlanta after both missed last week injured. On the flip side, top New Orleans pass rusher Marcus Davenport likely is out with a concussion. The Falcons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as home underdogs.