New Orleans @ Atlanta

Were the Falcons missing RB Todd Gurley and WR Julio Jones, they could raise a white flag of surrender. But the tandem that fuels Atlanta’s offense is expected to answer the bell after healing up. If it seems as though the Saints just beat Atlanta, well, they did - two weeks ago. Sweeping a division rival in such a short time frame is challenging, particularly when the winner of the first meeting deploys a backup QB. Taysom Hill has delivered two straight-up victories in place of Drew Brees but has yet to throw a TD pass and accounted for only 78 aerial yards last week. The Falcons, now familiarized with Hill, can similarly contain him.

This total is too high for these teams in their current states. The Saints defense has been awesome over the last month even when they've had to face a team with a quarterback, allowing just seven points per game in their last four matchups. The Falcons defense has also made strides since Raheem Morris took over, and it's not like Taysom Hill has looked great in his first extended action as starter. The Falcons defense is sixth in DVOA against the run, which should help limit what the Saints can do with the ball. If Julio Jones (questionable), Atlanta has a great shot at getting a revenge win here, but either way I expect this game goes Under.

This is a great revenge spot for the Falcons after the Saints completely shut down their offense in the first meeting. It looks like Julio Jones is trending toward playing, which is a big deal after he only managed to see the field on 35 percent of the offensive snaps in the last game against the Saints. I think a Falcons defense that ranks sixth in DVOA against the run can do a better job against the Saints offense this time around and force Taysom Hill to beat them with his arm, which I'm not sure he's capable of doing. Take the full field goal while you can get it.

The Saints' defense ranks second in DVOA and yards allowed per play at just 5.1. QB Taysom Hill is becoming a bigger dropoff from Drew Brees than we first thought, as his best assets are his legs. The Saints have gone Under in four straight games. Atlanta has played far better defensively since Raheem Morris took over as interim coach, with the Under hitting in four of its last five games. New Orleans posted a 24-9 home victory over Atlanta just two weeks ago.

With this down below the key number, I'm backing the Saints defense. Just like last year, New Orleans is not getting credit for its quality of play without Drew Brees. Last year, it was Teddy Bridgewater. Now, it's Taysom Hill. You know what hasn't changed? Sean Payton. As an Alvin Kamara fantasy manager and frequent Saints bettor, I have my own issues with Payton's obsession with Hill, but that's just the offense. New Orleans' defense has held opponents to 28 combined points in the last four games -- all covers. The Falcons are being overvalued after last week's domination, plus the return of Julio Jones. There's not a great history with division opponents playing twice in three weeks with the same favorite covering both times, but the situation is right here.

There's probably zero chance this gets to Falcons +3.5 (we recommend buying up to that number), so we'll jump now in case it drops to +2.5. Atlanta should be 5-1 (is 4-2) since interim coach Raheem Morris took over, and yes that one loss was ugly in New Orleans a couple of weeks ago. However, I'm taking Matt Ryan at home over Taysom Hill (yet to throw a TD pass) all day, especially with Julio Jones and Todd Gurley expected back for Atlanta after both missed last week injured. On the flip side, top New Orleans pass rusher Marcus Davenport likely is out with a concussion. The Falcons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as home underdogs.

The Saints are playing great, even with Taysom Hill at QB. They are doing it with a solid running game, and they lead the NFL in total defense. New Orleans has won eight straight, including Hill's first start under center against Atlanta just a couple of weeks ago - a 24-9 triumph. The Falcons are a dangerous team, but they simply can't be counted on defensively. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five games in week 13 and just 1-5 ATS in the last six overall meetings with the Saints.

Since the start of the 2008 season, these teams have met 25 times. None of those games had a total lower than 48. However, there are compelling reasons for the total to be this low. In fact, we think it should be even lower. Teams that had more than 10 wins the previous season and have committed more than one-half turnover per contest are 0-25 OU when playing their second straight road game against a team that has not lost four straight and has averaged more than 36.5 passes per outing. In each of its first seven games of the season, New Orleans allowed at least 23 points. In its last four, it has yielded 13 or fewer. Take the Under.

People are having difficulty valuing the Saints performance against the quarterback-less Broncos last game. While the Saints defense was in a great situation that is not replicable, their offensive game plan of run, run and run again is, and that is what we anticipate again in this game. New Orleans is scoring an average of 29.6 ppg and Atlanta is likely to play conservative at home against a high-scoring team. The Falcons are 0-8 OU (-8.50 ppg) since Nov 10, 2013 as home underdogs when facing a team scoring at least 25.5 ppg.

It is clear New Orleans is not getting a ton of respect despite its continued success. That is likely because Taysom Hill has not done much passing in his two starts thus far, but it has not been needed, and I suspect there are plenty of plays in the chamber to maximize Hill’s passing ability if necessary. Last week, New Orleans dominated Denver in a 31-3 win as a 15.5-point favorite. The Saints are 15-0 ATS (12.64 ppg) since January 2014 on the road past Week 2 of the season when they covered by at least six points in the last game.