Seattle @ Philadelphia

The Seahawks have covered five straight in Philly, they've had a little extra rest, and they're trending upward again after a midseason swoon. Most important, their defense is improving -- thanks to several key players returning from injury -- even if the numbers still look terrible. Lay the points.

No way, no how. Picking Philly during a prolonged slump by the offense cannot be justified, even against a bend-and-break defense such as Seattle’s. QB Carson Wentz ranks near the bottom in passer rating, completion percentage and yards per throw. He is dead-last in sacks (well behind the next-to-worst, Seattle’s Russell Wilson). The Eagles play the role of home ’dog poorly: 4-11 straight-up and 3-12 ATS in the last 15 dates. The Seahawks benefit from a quasi-bye week, with 10 days between games.

Laying a bunch of points with a Seahawks team that has had major defensive issues this season doesn't seem like a great idea, but their defense has actually taken a step forward over the last few weeks, giving up only 44 points in a pair of key divisional games in their last two matchups. And they'll get the benefit of facing an offense that has dealt with poor play from the quarterback and offensive line, which makes it harder for the Eagles to get through the back door late. The Eagles defense also hasn't given up many points lately, but the Seahawks are a different beast than the Giants, Cowboys and Browns. Seattle should be able to win this game by at least a touchdown.

Right now the Eagles are a broken team. Their offense can't seem to get right and their defense has been a bit banged up recently. They face a Seahawks squad that has found its rhythm and mojo on the defensive side of the ball, thanks to the addition of former Bengal DE Carlos Dunlap. Look for that Seattle defense to have a repeat performance of last year's Wild Card playoffs, and keep the Eagles grounded in Philly.

Though I'm not in love with this at a full touchdown, the Seahawks are still the right side entering this game. The Eagles simply cannot be trusted, and with it seeming like Jalen Hurts will be getting some snaps, it's clear that the trust in Carson Wentz is falling. Since Seattle has gone back to the running game and eliminated opponent possessions, its defense has been able to limit competent offenses in the Cardinals and Rams. Philadelphia is losers of two straight and has not beaten a non-NFC East opponent since Oct. 4 when it took down an injured San Francisco team. See if you can get this closer to -5 before kickoff, but I'm comfortable enough at this number.

Russell Wilson bounced back strong against Arizona and the Eagles are dealing with more injuries. Carson Wentz is a disaster; he leads the NFL with 14 interceptions and 18 total turnovers. Seattle picked up some help on defense, including Carlos Dunlap, and it showed last week. Lay the points.

Well, I'm going contrarian here. All my cohorts so far have picked Seattle and I totally understand why. But the Seahawks have looked largely terrible in their past three road games and are being a bit overvalued simply off beating Arizona in my opinion. The Cardinals proved Sunday they aren't that great. Even the SportsLine Projection Model says to take the points (I'd recommend buying to +7 to be safe but don't think it will get that high on its own). So we will.

The Seahawks have held their last two opponents under their team total, but this is actually an Over indicator. Seattle is 9-0 OU since December 2016, when it held each of its final two opponents to fewer points than expected, as long as it did not cover both games by two TDs. Seattle also is 13-0 OU versus a non-divisional opponent when it's coming off a home win in which its QB threw at least 20 passes and had fewer than 10 incompletions. As for the Eagles, we see they are 15-0 OU at home during the regular season after a loss by fewer than 41 points as an underdog in which they committed multiple turnovers and forced five or fewer punts.